Can I ever lay this down or do I have to pay off?

rannerboy · #1 10-10-2005, 12:07 PM

Live 9-handed NL game. Blinds 5/5. Table has been extremely loose preflop, tightening up after the flop.

I'm in one of the blinds and pick up A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Every single player limps to me(!). I raise to 60 and get called by one EP player and one MP player.

EP player has been even more loose than the rest of the table, playing almost any two cards. MP plays pretty solid poker, and he would not call this kind of raise with nothing or a hand that is easily dominated.

My own table image is tight, maybe even very tight, since I haven't played many hands and every hand I have shown down has been very good. For example just a couple of hands ago I busted a guy with JJ when my 33 hit a set on the flop.

So, three players to the flop of K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Bingo!

Pot size 210. I bet out 200. EP player folds and MP player raises all-in for 490 without even thinking about it. WTF?

So, the pot is 900 and it costs me only 290 more to call. More than 3:1 pot odds, which is great! On the other hand, I'm almost sure that Villain has a hand that can beat TPTK.

Can I ever lay this down or do I just have to pay him off if he has me beat?

As a related question: If you think I should call this every time, how big would villain's raise have to be to make me seriously consider a fold (My stack is much bigger than Villain's)?

swolfe · #2 10-10-2005, 12:15 PM

for that price, i think you have to call. i think you're splitting as often as you're losing to a set, and you're winning more often against KQ or something.

rannerboy · #3 10-10-2005, 12:30 PM

Thing is I think he put me on at least AK, maybe even AA or KK. He know I wouldn't make that raise with KQ against this many limpers from OOP. Neither do I think he would put me on QQ-TT, even though I would probably have played them more or less the same. And as I said in the first post he wasn't likely to have called preflop with a dominated hand like KQ. Also, since his stack is very small he knows he's almost 100% guaranteed to getting called. Best case as I see it here is a split with AK. Still, those are very good pot odds to say no to... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Mr. Sakuraba · #4 10-10-2005, 12:38 PM

For anything over 2:1, i call this all day, everyday.

spahk · #5 10-10-2005, 12:40 PM

from your description of villain, i'd guess you were looking at a set (is he ever limping along in MP with AK?). but i've seen some stupid things live, and that pot is pretty big, so i'd pay it off. with 200 in pf, and villain having only 500 left, it's going to be hard not to double him up in this hand no matter how you play it. i'd suggest checking that flop in the future anyway, though. you're out of position with a transparent hand, making it almost impossible for villain to make a mistake here when you lead out like that.

swolfe · #6 10-10-2005, 12:42 PM

do you think you're good here more than 25% of the time? if so, then call...

if he's a solid player like you're saying then he didn't call over 10% of his stack with 88 or 44. he probably has AA, QQ, JJ, or AK (with AK being most likely IMO).

rannerboy · #7 10-10-2005, 12:48 PM

Hmmm...no, I don't think he would have limped AK to begin with so there goes the split...

Is checking the flop really the way to go here? I prefer leading out in situations like these. If I had checked to him and he had bet, I would just have put him all-in. Or if he had put all his chips in when checked to I would have called.

How would you have played QQ/JJ on the flop in this situation? Would you check that as well?

rannerboy · #8 10-10-2005, 12:50 PM

He was a solid player but just as the rest of the table playing quite loose preflop hoping to flop big.

#9 10-10-2005, 01:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He was a solid player but just as the rest of the table playing quite loose preflop hoping to flop big.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case his range of hands your facing is far broader and you're good more of the time. Unless you have a solid read that you're beat, call if that's the case.

chumsferd · #10 10-10-2005, 01:17 PM

I'm crap at replying to hand posts, but I think I can say with total sincerity that if I had this read...

[ QUOTE ]
I'm almost sure that Villain has a hand that can beat TPTK.

[/ QUOTE ]

...I would fold. The maths tells me I'd have to be very unsure of my read in order to make a call correct. So, the question is... do you trust your read?