So, I flopped the nut low

jogumon · #1 10-06-2005, 10:34 PM

30/60 game at the Bellagio. I've been at the table for about 20 minutes, and haven't noticed anything too interesting.

UTG+1 in this hand seems pretty standard. I haven't seen him in too many pots, and haven't seen anything special out of him. No significant reads on the other players. Not ultra tight, not ultra agressive, not ultra fishy.

I'm on the button with 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG+1 limps, a couple more limp, I limp, blinds come along. 6 to the flop for a sb each.

The flop is 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG+1 bets, 2 call, I call, blinds fold.

Turn is the 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG+1 bets, 1 call, I call.

River is the Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], UTG+1 bets, next guy folds, I look at my stack and say 'raise'...

CardSharpCook · #2 10-06-2005, 10:42 PM

Yeah, I think you induce a fold here often enough. He's probably not calling with his JT. Of course, he is calling with his 55-99, and may call with ace high. I think your raise wins this pot enough to be profitable. 9BBs, you're investing 2BBs, so he has to fold twice in 9 times.for this to be profitable or 22% of the time. It's close, but I think you're good.

Stork · #3 10-06-2005, 10:48 PM

You really think JT or any hand like it leads all 3 streets into multiple opponents? He's showing alot of strength for such a low board. I doubt he folds anything to your raise except maybe 76, but this hand doesn't seem too post-worthy unless villain folds, so therefor villain folded 76. nh.

flawless_victory · #4 10-07-2005, 12:08 AM

well, J5 might fold. still looks pretty bad.

Stork · #5 10-07-2005, 12:11 AM

Based on OPs read, I don't think villain is limping J5 preflop UTG+1.

flawless_victory · #6 10-07-2005, 12:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Based on OPs read, I don't think villain is limping J5 preflop UTG+1.

[/ QUOTE ]well then its a clear fold.

Stork · #7 10-07-2005, 12:59 AM

word.

CardSharpCook · #8 10-07-2005, 01:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You really think JT or any hand like it leads all 3 streets into multiple opponents? He's showing alot of strength for such a low board. I doubt he folds anything to your raise except maybe 76, but this hand doesn't seem too post-worthy unless villain folds, so therefor villain folded 76. nh.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK then, do the math. Assign likely holdings and give them % possibilities to each holding.

Personally, I think that the possibility of UTG holding JT,T9,98,87,j9,j8,T7,T8, etc etc, AND playing it this way is around 25%, making this a good play. I think that UTG having hands like 22-TT, 4X, QT, QJ, Q9 AND playing it this way is around 70%. Sleeping giants he was hoping to 3bet PF account for the other 5%.

flawless_victory · #9 10-07-2005, 01:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You really think JT or any hand like it leads all 3 streets into multiple opponents? He's showing alot of strength for such a low board. I doubt he folds anything to your raise except maybe 76, but this hand doesn't seem too post-worthy unless villain folds, so therefor villain folded 76. nh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Personally, I think that the possibility of UTG holding JT,T9,98,87,j9,j8,T7,T8, etc etc, AND playing it this way is around 25%, making this a good play.

[/ QUOTE ]YOU ARE ON CRACK.

Stork · #10 10-07-2005, 01:35 AM

You think UTG+1, described by OP as such:
[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 in this hand seems pretty standard. I haven't seen him in too many pots, and haven't seen anything special out of him.

[/ QUOTE ]
bets the numerous no pair+no draw hands you listed into a field of 6 on the flop, then 4 on the turn, and 3 on the river? I don't get how you think that's possible.