$55 bubble play

[pooh74]

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Interesting and sophisticated idea.

Maybe too sophisticated.

There are many scenarios, but the problem is that, if you fold or lose, you are down to $1050 or $925, with $600 in blinds coming your way.

I just see no reason to get involved here with a borderline hand, for the reasons stated well by an earlier poster.

If I was one of the other two stacks besides the big one and I saw you put any money in the pot, I'd be jumping for glee.

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There's only one big stack here...you're the button.

I look at it this way, you're at around a 3-1 chip ratio with BB before posting, if he folds bc SB pushes over your call, you become a 10-1 ratio over BB, even though you lost 1/3 of your chips.

It comes down to this basically:

Play for better chance at 2nd also gives you a higher chance of 4th or,

Play for a very high probability of 3rd.

Because 1st is highly remote here, I am opting for the high chance of 3rd. Calling here assures that. In fact, if SB knows what he is doing, he should raise me, but I really don't mind. BB has 125 and is all in next hand and Ill call then too...Unless BB calls the raise, then I call too (even if he wins, I can win the side pot and stay alive)

[fnord_too]

I like calling here. My number 1 priority is to make sure BB does get a free pass while not getting all my chips in. If it gets folded around I want to puke. If the big stack pushes and BB folds, I fold without regret. Often it will go complete push call call fold around.

One big problem is that a smart sb will fold here to maintain the bubble, knowing he can pick on you and setta's stacks.

[pooh74]

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I like calling here. My number 1 priority is to make sure BB does get a free pass while not getting all my chips in. If it gets folded around I want to puke. If the big stack pushes and BB folds, I fold without regret. Often it will go complete push call call fold around.

One big problem is that a smart sb will fold here to maintain the bubble, knowing he can pick on you and setta's stacks.

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Yeah, so with a random hand it sucks, but A8 is good enough...

But I see that as very unlikely (SB folding)...this is free money for him, a push is more likely...if he's smart

[pineapple888]

Well, I'm too slow to figure out all the ramifications of your strategy.

For my approach, let's assume that if you fold, SB puts BB all-in (with two random hands) and that first place is out of reach for hero.

Half the time, you are guaranteed third and have a good shot at second.

Half the time, you are the middle one of three medium stacks, and have a 2/3 chance of ITM (with a good shot at second).

So, folding gives you 85% ITM, maybe 40% of those are seconds, say overall 35% second, 50% third, 15% OOTM.

So, if you can argue that your strategy is better than that (with A8, remember), I'll be convinced.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I'm too slow to figure out all the ramifications of your strategy.

For my approach, let's assume that if you fold, SB puts BB all-in (with two random hands) and that first place is out of reach for hero.

Half the time, you are guaranteed third and have a good shot at second.

Half the time, you are the middle one of three medium stacks, and have a 2/3 chance of ITM (with a good shot at second).

So, folding gives you 85% ITM, maybe 40% of those are seconds, say overall 35% second, 50% third, 15% OOTM.

So, if you can argue that your strategy is better than that (with A8, remember), I'll be convinced.

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your assumption that SB puts BB all-in is so far off that I didnt even bother to read the rest.

FWIW, if I were SB here and it was folded to me, Id fold most hands and push the next two...thats a lot more chips...actually twice as much.

[helpmeout]

Dont take my advice cos I'm wrong everytime.

Anyway I'd push here, your hand is too good 3handed to throw away.

Stackleader would likely know that you need a good hand to push here as BB is going to be blinded soon so I doubt he will call with cheese.

If you dont make this move then there is every chance BB will double up and your chance at top 2 is lower.

[Bigdaddydvo]

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Dont take my advice cos I'm wrong everytime.

Anyway I'd push here, your hand is too good 3handed to throw away.

Stackleader would likely know that you need a good hand to push here as BB is going to be blinded soon so I doubt he will call with cheese.

If you dont make this move then there is every chance BB will double up and your chance at top 2 is lower.


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Dude...the title of this Post is $55 bubble play, and you're talking about pushing 3 handed...come on, pay attention.

[helpmeout]

CO folded, well change it to A8o on the button then. Thats a pretty good hand.