Pot Odds Question

[Medibart]

In the explanations of Pot Odds I've never seen this mentioned so excuse me if it is a basic question.

The basic concept for pot odds is if your pot odds are higher than your probability for making your hands you should call. However, for that concept to be correct, the wager would have to be a constant. Of course, we all know that wager is not a constant. Your call in one hand might be 1BB and in the next hand it might be 20BB while still getting the same pot odds. How is this variation in wager taken into consideration in the basic Pot Odds equation?

My assumption is that if N were the number of plays, as N approaches infinity variation in wager is attenuated and approaches 0. Is this assumption correct?

So is it always correct to call if you have proper pot odds no matter what the impact is to your stack?

[elmitchbo]

since no one else has posted i'll take a quick a stab. you're post was a little confusing.

your initial statememt was correct: "The basic concept for pot odds is if your pot odds are higher than your probability for making your hands you should call."

the next statement is where you get off track. there is no need for the wager to be a constant for that to be correct. a $10 bet into a $100 pot is laying 10 to 1. a $5 bet into a $50 pot is laying 10 to 1 also. after that you get further of th track... the number of plays is meaningless. you can do pot odds for every hand individually, whether you've played 1 hand or 100,000 hands.

it's simple.... take the amount of money in the pot and divide by the amount of the bet you need to call, and compare that to the odds of you catching the outs you need to make your hand.

[Medibart]

Here's the thing though. Let's use your example of getting 10:1 on your money and let's say you have like 4 outs on the river - about 9:1 probability. The one time you hit it has to make up for the other 8 times you miss.

If in your successful attempt you put in 2$ and won $20 but the other 8 times you missed you put in an average of 3$ you lost 24$ for a net loss of 4$. So even though you had good pot odds each time and you matched the statistical expectation, this was not a profitable play. That is why it seems to me that in the basic pot odds equation, the wager would somehow have to be a constant, otherwise there is no guarantee of profitibility considering sometimes you are winning a little and sometimes you are losing a lot.

[lillumultipass]

Well, I will try to answer even though I am still rather inexperienced yet!
So, to my understanding, pot odds only serves you to make a good decision, that is if you have 4-1 pot odds and you are 2.2-1 to make your straight by the river, you should call, because if that same exact situation were to happen again and again, you are expected to come out a winner. So it is mathematically correct to call. I would say that if the wager is not the same, it is not exactly the same situation. But, if in the case of a 20BB bet, the pot odds say you should call, then you ought to call to!
I am not sure my explanation will suit you...in my mind it was clearer than that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[PygmyHero]

If the pot odds are greater than your odds against making the hand, then calling has a positive expected value.

Here's how you calculate the pot odds: (total money in pot) divided by (the amount of the bet you would have to call).

Odds against making your hand: (number of cards that can hit that help you - your 'outs') divided by the total number of cards left in the deck.

A few important considerations:
1) This calculation becomes a little more complex if there are two cards to come and you are pushing all-in on the flop.
2) Make sure you know what your outs are. For example, your flush card could give someone else a full house.
3) If you are drawing to the nuts, great. If not, you will want a little bit better pot odds to call (i.e. if you are drawing to a flush or straight that could be beaten by a bigger one).
4) Always calling when you have positive expected value may not be correct. For example, if you are in a tournament, and you lose...you're out. In that case it may be better to wait for a more favorable odds situation.
5) You may not want to call (even if the odds are correct)if you're putting a large stack of chips in danger on a speculative draw if your bankroll cannot withstand the fluctuations.
6) You may also want to learn a little bit about the concept of 'implied odds.'

Most of this information can be found in decent introductory poker books. I'm pretty sure Krieger's Hold 'Em Excellence and More Hold 'Em Excellence books cover the above points (except the tournament one - check out Sklansky...Tournament Poker for Advanced Players I think), and many others probably do as well.

Hope that helps!

[Izenra]

I am on a flush draw on turn, so roughly 20% to make my hand. The pot is 10 $. The bettor bet 2.5 $. Do I have the odd?

Is it like : Pot is(WITH THE BET) 12.5, I call with 2.5, thus 20 % ( I am ok)

Or is it :

Pot is 10 $ and you does not count the bettor in the pot, so 2.5 /10 $ is bad odd( 25 %) so no call.

Which one is right? ( Note I am mostly no limit, and do not count the implied in these situation)

[TennesseeKid]

Implied Odds Chapter
"Theory of Poker" David Sklansky

(I think it's chapter 3 or so)

[NoWorry]

I believe that you are taking theory too literally. If you are getting 10:1 odds, you do not actually have to play that hand 10 times to receive your net expectation. In fact, chances are that you will not get the exact return from such a limited sample, even if the bet was, in fact, a constant.

In reality, each and every time you play that hand the odds of the outcome are identical, regardless of the size of the wager.

If you are flipping a coin, you do not actually have to flip it twice to get one head. Your expectation of getting a head is 50/50 on EACH flip, regardless of the flip before or after and regardless of the amount of your wager. And your success or failure on that wager concludes with that outcome and does not carry forward to the next wager or the next outcome.

Therefore, your determination of whether to take the bet is whether you have a positive expectation on each flip, independent of all other flips, all other bets (regardless of amount) and all previous and future outcomes.

When you increase or decrease the amount of your wager on a subsequent bet, it has no impact on past or future wagers.

Hope this helps.

[NoWorry]

Calculating by percentages is a difficult way to calculate pot odds. It can be done, but it's very easy to make mistakes.

Instead:

80% to miss vs 20% to make = 80:20 = 4:1

You need the pot to pay you $4 for every $1 you bet.

In your example, the pot will pay you $12.50 for your $2.50 bet. Therefore, you are actually getting 5:1 for your bet.

Specifically, in answer to your question, you must include the total amount in the pot before your bet which includes your opponent's bet.

[elmitchbo]

i see what you're saying now. in the last situation you gave you weren't comparing apples to apples.

here's the thing... you have to consider 10 trials of the same situation. not ten trials of random situations that involve different variables.

but you're right, in real life you don't get to make the exact same bet 10 times in a row. never the less, it is a positive ev play over the long term. you have to play enough hands to have the same situations come up enough times to have the probabilities play out.