Trusting your reads

[TheRonin]

I can see the smart ass comments coming in fast but please just take some time and consider where I am at in my game right now.
In the last 2 days I have been placed in 3 situations where I was playing NL Holded (MTT's or S&G's) where I knew I was beat. I hate to be one of those people who call then say "I knew you had that" cause thats just stupid. But thats exactly how I am playing as of late. ex. I was dealt QQ in the BB during a MTT a stack raised i re-raised he pushed. I was 80% sure he had AA but for some reason I still called. I wasnt pot committed and I was pretty sure I was beat but I still called. How disappointed I am in myself. I guess my question would be is:
I think my reads are decent but how can I suppress my idiot stubborness urge to play big hands even when i feel like i'm beat?
Has anyone else went through this period in the poker progression?

[Louie Landale]

Judging by what I've read in these forums about No Limit, the following seems to be a minority opinion.

I think the problem is the notion of "pot committed". I see it written about a lot but it seems like a ludicrous notion to me. Anyway, you DO seem "pot committed" when you call an all that all in bet. So maybe you need to [1] get the idea out of your head that an over pair requires committment to the pot, and [2] pot committed is a notion you need to recognize in the other guy (don't bluff), but it doesn't apply to you.

You need to know your player. If he doesn't 4-bet-push at all, then its no surprise what he's got when he does. Lay it down. I don't play online yet, but I'm sure that always folding to all in bets is a lot better than usually calling them. Take your stats and find the guys that DO all-in bluff, and call them. Fold to everyone else.

- Louie

[Guruman]

you can never be 80% sure that your opponent holds any particular two cards. 10% of the time or more they will bluff. The rest of the time if you're good you can accurately estimate a range of hands probably 60% to 70% of the time.

Play solid poker and bend them to your will. Don't bend to theirs.

[rex4334]

This is an issue i often find myself facing.... Also, hindsight is 20/20.. Unfortunately, this game is of imperfect information and we will never be able to know the outcome of these things until they happen. What if you folded your Q's preflop? Would you have gained? Would you fully think you did the correct thing? You'll never know... I dont have an answer, simply a symthathy for your situation as I've found myself there before... I guess this is where the art and science of poker meet to produce a constantly varying result.. Keep on keepin on!

-rex