44 misses flop in largish pot

morberg · #1 02-09-2005, 05:35 PM

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, CO calls, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB raises, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, CO folds, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

River: (11.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG folds, UTG+1 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

I'm not sure calling the flop was a good move, but with no raises and me being able to close the betting round I figured my hand was worth calling with. When it comes back to me the pot is 15 SB, so with 2 outs to a set and 1 out for a backdoor straight I think I'm good here. Good call?

On the turn I pick up an open ended straight flush draw, but could be drawing dead against a made flush. The slow action on the flop indicates that this is *not* the case, but you never know. (Not all people bet out their flush draws.) Three eights might give someone else a higher straight. The 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is a proper out unless I'm up against 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] but all 3:s should be good. Not sure how to count the two fours as they might give someone else a straight. Let's say five outs, which would give me odds to call.

Should I worry about the flush and fold here? That play seems awfully weak to me, but maybe it's correct. Raising also feels wrong, since my hand is pretty weak at the moment.

When I make my straight on the river I call UTG+1 down, which feels pretty straightforward. I can't give away a pot this size at this moment and betting out seems too risky.

Comments?

FreakDaddy · #2 02-09-2005, 05:52 PM

This is one of those border line hands that I dopr after the flop. True, you're getting 14.3:1 and you're getting 15:1 BUT - and here's the big But, with this large of a field, you know someone is on the jack - so you're against someone else trying to hit higher trips and at least one flush draw. The person on the flush draw has better odds then you do hitting trips or your back door straight draw. This is kind of like reverse engineering this hand, but I think considering what people are trying to draw out on you is most important when playing out this hand. It's a border line call and some people will disagree with me, but I'd drop the hand. Since you decided to play it, I think you played it fine.

cold_cash · #3 02-09-2005, 05:59 PM

I'd fold on the turn. I'm only counting you as having three outs - the three non-heart 3's, and a couple 'maybes'.

Your flush draw is worth jack/squat. An 8 isn't worth much, maybe half an out. Same thing with a 4.

It looks like you're getting 9:1 on around a 4-outer at best, and there's people still to act behind you. I'm out.

Since you didn't fold the turn I think you better bet this river next time. That's one crappy looking board for somone holding a hand like A/KJ, and he'll check it through a lot of the time. (Since you checked and he bet, check-raise his punk ass. What are you worried he's holding?)

_bustedflush_ · #4 02-09-2005, 06:07 PM

I doubt I would get as far as you did, but if I got to that river, bet. The only reason I can think of not to bet out the river is to pray someone will take a shot and I can check raise.

morberg · #5 02-10-2005, 03:54 AM

Result (in white):
 UTG+1 shows 99 (one was a heart) 

I've read and re-read Ed Miller's post here on the forum about people folding too much in large pots. I would love comments on whether or not this was a bad play with that post in mind.

morberg · #6 02-10-2005, 03:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold on the turn. I'm only counting you as having three outs - the three non-heart 3's, and a couple 'maybes'.

[/ QUOTE ]

The three of hearts gives my a straight flush. I'd say that is a proper out if there ever was one [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
(Since you checked and he bet, check-raise his punk ass. What are you worried he's holding?)

[/ QUOTE ]

I was worried about a flush.