Applying Elindaur's Concept

I open from the hijack with K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the party 30-60 game. SB folds, BB (19.2/12.1/2.7) calls.

BB bets out on a 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] board.

{fold call raise}?
I'm guessing {0.5 0.15 0.35} for me. Other people's distributions?

[tongni]

{10, 10, 10, 70}. Pretty obvious now that you thought about it, right?

[1800GAMBLER]

I think you should do 33, 33, 33 for every decision ever from now on.

[w_alloy]

I was confused by your post at first untill I realized you were using your disconnect protect 45% of the time. NH, I probably woudnt have thought of that.

[akishore]

[ QUOTE ]
I was confused by your post at first untill I realized you were using your disconnect protect 45% of the time. NH, I probably woudnt have thought of that.

[/ QUOTE ]

or you just missed that 0.5 = 0.50 = 50%. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

aseem

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
I open from the hijack with K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the party 30-60 game. SB folds, BB (19.2/12.1/2.7) calls.

BB bets out on a 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] board.

{fold call raise}?
I'm guessing {0.5 0.15 0.35} for me. Other people's distributions?

[/ QUOTE ]

Now we're talking! First, some quick suggestions on the formatting:

Let's write these the same way, like this:

FCR {50, 15, 35}


Now, how do we get the numbers in this case?

Let's do it step-by-step.

Step 1. What is your hand range on the flop? Thats is, tell us exactly what hands and how often for each (if it's not 100%) you would have raised from the button in this hand.


At the same time, we need to find an overall mixed strategy for handling this donkbet with our entire range of hands. What should that be? Once we have this range, we'll look at your overall range and see where KQ fits into the mix.

Some quick thoughts are that

a) he should profit if we have nothing, so we can't continue 100% of the time
b) that profit should be about equal to his losses if we have something, so folding everything but overpairs is too tight

I've done a lot of posting and math here today... anybody else want to take a stab at these numbers for our overall range?

-Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should do 33, 33, 33 for every decision ever from now on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's just save us all some time and say up front that anybody who isn't interested in doing the title of the post applying elindauer's concept, should just go away. Nobody tricked you into reading this thread, you knew what you were going to see. We're not interested in your uninsightful potshots here.

Better yet, why don't you go read Barry's excellent Attitudes around here post and see how you are hurting yourself by driving away quality posters with your I'm-right-you're-thoughts-are-stupid, hahahahaha remarks. As far as I can tell, most everyone wants this crap to stop.

Sincerely,
Eric

[1800GAMBLER]

I was serious. I think if everyone does 33, 33, 33 from now on my poker will benefit.

edit: i meant FCR {33, 33, 33}

Alright, since this is my hand, I'll make an effort, but this is not quite my strongsuit. I'm going to need some help here...Note that I'm doing this from work, so I don't have my exact numbers from pokertracker available, but I'm guessing that my openraising from the hijack is about:
66+
Axs
A9o+
K9s+
KTo+
Q9s+
QJo+
JTs+
depending on the CO and Button.

I'm guessing that the range for that BB to call but not 3bet is, giving him a few premium trapping hands:
AA,KK
22:99
A8:ATo
Axs
KT-KJ
Q9:QJ
suited connectors down to 45s
maybe some other random suited one gappers and 9To type hands...not sure

ok, so I raise from the hijack, and he decided to donk out, he could have either:
a pair
a draw (not that the draw could very well be ahead if it's nte nut flush draw)
air

I'm guessing it's something on the order of {pair draw air}
{50 30 20} for him, but I'm really pulling those numbers out of midair.

ok, now I'm stuck. Help...I guess I don't know what I'm doing here.

[DeeJ]

yeah it's pretty complex to try and model the whole thing from the flop only. You have a weak hand and a weak draw.

It's easier to use pokerstove or something like that to see your likely win %ge rather than work out all the win:lose options for all possible villain hands and turn and river combinations and bets. Here I think it's a fold or call situation, unless you have a read that he'll occasionally fold for one more bet on the flop, or always (usually) bets out regardless of his holding. You need to be there to decide. i guess FC{80,20}