River raise ?

simpsp31 · #1 11-16-2005, 11:26 AM

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO raises, 1 fold, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, CO raises, Hero calls, BB 3-bets, CO caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (12 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, CO calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15 BB

Pre flop OK ?
River raise ?

Thanks Paul.

imported_leader · #2 11-16-2005, 08:36 PM

Clear fold PF. I'm not CC the flop. 3-bet or fold. I'm not sure which. You must raise/call the river.

Spicymoose · #3 11-16-2005, 08:48 PM

Preflop I think I fold, but I don't really know how to play in the blinds, so maybe this is a raise. I really don't think you can call though.

On the flop, BB could easily be betting a draw (the first time he bets), and CO could easily be auto-raising a lot of hands that you beat. You need to follow through with your check raise.

Turn is fine, you are probably behind, but have odds to draw.

River is a must check raise. It seems you almost definetly have CO beat, as he most probably has AA, KK, AQ, KQ. BB looks like he most probably has Q9 or 22. There are 6 combos of Q9, and 3 combos of 22. In a worst case scenario, this means that 2/3 of the time you will gain 1 extra BB, and 1/3 of the time you will lose 2 BB if he reraises. In this worst case scenario, your check raise is EV neutral, but given the fact that sometimes he won't reraise his 22, and given the fact that CO does call the check raise sometimes, you clearly have an edge, and should check raise.

#4 11-16-2005, 08:53 PM

Post deleted by Keepitsimple

SunOfBeach · #5 11-16-2005, 08:54 PM

i'd be questioning the play on the earlier streets before id be questioning the play on the river.

Spicymoose · #6 11-16-2005, 09:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I cant see myself ever defending more hands should I start folding this. I defend only 60% currently and I call here vs my standard opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

You defend 60% of your hands in the SB against a steal? I don't think that is possible. Maybe you mean you fold SB to steal 60% of the time? Even that seems like you are playing a few too many hands from the SB against a steal. My fold SB to steal is at 85%, which I know means I am too tight from the SB, but I think 60% might be too loose, unless perhaps you are one of the best blind defeneders out there (and even then, that number seems too loose).

The top 40% of hands, according to Pokerstove are...

44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q4s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A3o+,K7o+,Q8 o+,J8o+,T9o

Plenty of those hands seem unplayable to me.

#7 11-16-2005, 09:11 PM

OOUPS. I thought we were in the BB. I am deleting my post.

Drontier · #8 11-16-2005, 09:39 PM

3 bet PF(unless hes passive). 3 bet the flop(unless hes passive, then fold). Otherwise fold the turn. Raise the river.

simpsp31 · #9 11-17-2005, 04:37 AM

Thanks for the input, seems i butchered almost every street.

My thoughts are below:

PF i think this is definitely a raise to a probable steal from the CO. Not sure why i didnt 3 bet this.

Flop the initial plan was to check raise but given the action in front of me i felt i was behind to probable overpair from CO. At this point i couldnt really narrow down BB's holding and felt it could be anything from a flush draw to a set to TP.

Turn Well BB comes out firing again, im now getting a bit lost in this hand and decide i need to improve to win, hence the call

River Again i planned to check raise but didnt follow through for some reason, i had a nagging feeling that BB had a set, thanks Spicymoose for the analysis of this. The river is clearly a checkraise.

MrBig30 · #10 11-17-2005, 05:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]

PF i think this is definitely a raise to a probable steal from the CO. Not sure why i didnt 3 bet this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you say it is a probable steal? You did not include any reads but how probable it is depends a lot on his steal%. Also QJo is not that great HU out of position unless CO folds too easily. If he does not steal too much he is quite likely to hold an ace or a king or a PP meaning you pay 3SB to play the worst hand out of position. I think PF is a clear fold against most players.