River raise with bottom full house?

centja1 · #1 07-20-2005, 01:02 PM

Villain in this hand is 28/7.5/1.75 over 70 hands. For this session (about 35 hands in) I perceived him as a little loose pre-flop but nothing more nor less than solid post-flop.

I've been reading SSHE and particularly working on not freezing up on the river when i should bet or raise for value. 100% of the time, I'm betting the river if checked to, but I'm wondering about the viability of a raise on the end. He obviously won't fold a better hand, but will he have a worse hand often enough to raise?

Thanks for the help.

Absolute Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, SB folds, MP2 3-bets, Hero calls.

River: (13 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero ???

Final Pot: 18 BB

Tom1975 · #2 07-20-2005, 01:07 PM

I'd raise and get paid off by his trip 8's. If he has you beat now he would have had at least had two pair on the flop and would have 3-bet you there. Since he didn't, I'd say it's safe to put him on trips.

Paxosmotic · #3 07-20-2005, 01:08 PM

This may be the first and last time I'll advocate calling with a full house where both hole cards play, but there you have it. He's loose preflop but reasonable post flop so while you can put him on some pretty strange holdings, I don't think he's going this far without having a very strong holding. I'd expect to see T8 far more often than A8.

Edit : Surprised to see I'm going to be in the minority on this one. Hmm.

crunchy1 · #4 07-20-2005, 01:09 PM

The only reason to not cap the turn is so that you can raise the river. Personally, I cap the turn.

hicherbie · #5 07-20-2005, 01:11 PM

cap the turn and bet if he checks. call if he raises.
TT should have gone to war with you on the flop if hes solid.

DMBFan23 · #6 07-20-2005, 01:31 PM

he seems fairly passive preflop (7.5 PFR) but he should have been able to find a raise with TT preflop. so, I don't really think that's in his range here.

I would give him T8s, 98s, 87s, A8s, A8o (maybe half as likely). I am not lending much weight to 85s, 98o, T8o, or 87o, though I could be wrong about what a 28 VPIP player limps here. EDIT: also I suppose he could have the one combo of 88 that's left.

given that there's only one way for him to have T8s, and I think he'd play any 8 like this (or at least I would) I think we have to cap the turn. the interesting thing to me is what do we do if he leads any river. I think call, but I could be convinced raise.

since we got to the river like we did, I think we can raise. we haven't really represented our hand that well. I mean we could easily have something like JT, KT, AT or whatever here and he thinks his 98s is good.

centja1 · #7 07-20-2005, 01:50 PM

I'm not really surprised that you're in the minority on this one. I think my full house may be slightly weak to raise on the end heads up. After thinking about it more clearly, I'm not sure what he will call me with that i beat other than trip 8s on this raggy paired board. I know the pot is big and he will call with a lot of junk, but the reason the pot is big is because of the two of us raising and three-betting on the turn, so it's not like he was passively calling hoping his tens were good.

In the face of the turn three-bet, I thought exactly along tom's line and concluded that he had trip eights since he didn't three-bet the flop. In hindsight, i should have capped the turn and called the river bet. EDIT: (Which would have made the river decision miles easier)

Anyway, I was concerned when he bet into me on the river but resisted my urge to call down. I don't want to be results oriented and am trying my best to ignore the negative reinforcement here. Evidently there are several posters who would do this exact same thing, and I'm at least satisfied that I made a reasonable play. here are the results.....

River: (13 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 18 BB

Results below:
MP2 has Th 8h (full house, eights full of tens).
Hero has 5s 5d (full house, fives full of eights).
Outcome: MP2 wins 18 BB.

Paxosmotic · #8 07-20-2005, 01:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Results below:
MP2 has Th 8h (full house, eights full of tens).
Hero has 5s 5d (full house, fives full of eights).
Outcome: MP2 wins 18 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]
I MUST BE THE GREATEST!

I think I was wrong in my analysis though, and it only took DMBfan23 and smileyEH beating me over the head with my own shoe to convince me. Hero should have capped the turn, that would have defined our hand. At that point it would have been correct to call the river.

shant · #9 07-20-2005, 02:01 PM

You cap the turn. He bets, you're almost always beat and you call. He checks, you probably have him beat, you bet he calls. He checks, you bet, he raises, you've been owned, but call.

In that scenario you only risk putting in 2BB on the river if he gets tricky. Otherwise, you save a bet. So, cap the turn.

Sarge85 · #10 07-20-2005, 02:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]

River: (13 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 18 BB

Results below:
MP2 has Th 8h (full house, eights full of tens).
Hero has 5s 5d (full house, fives full of eights).
Outcome: MP2 wins 18 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to reinterate...

Your going to be shown X8 here more often than not. I'd be getting the last bet in on the turn, and I still put in a raise on the river.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]