Not another donk bet

kapw7 · #1 08-08-2005, 07:16 PM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Button typically donkbets after I raise PF and the flop has no big cards. The other two are nice loose guys who will call with anything.

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls, 1 fold, MP calls.

MP is 62/25 and since he didn't raise he probably has crap.

Flop: (9 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP checks, Hero checks, Button bets, SB calls, MP calls, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls, MP calls.

Good check-raise?

Turn: (8.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB calls, MP folds.

River: (11.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button folds, SB calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

DrunkHamster · #2 08-08-2005, 07:21 PM

I like every street, I think. The CR is very nice, provided you have a good enough read on the dude (which you obviously did). The river is not beautiful, but you figure to be good enough here to value bet. NH.

aK13 · #3 08-08-2005, 07:25 PM

Bet the flop~!!!

Kumubou · #4 08-08-2005, 07:28 PM

If your read is that solid (that he will donkbet anything after anyone PFRs when the flop comes bricks), then your play is correct.

Against someone I was not fully confident in betting out, I just do it myself on that flop.

Turn and river are standard.

-K

silkyslim · #5 08-08-2005, 07:35 PM

nh. with your read the raise on the flop for value with 3 callers was nice. With a more vulnerable hand I would have just bet out. Turn TP, river value bet. Was there a specific question?

Redd · #6 08-08-2005, 07:45 PM

I think your play is as good as your read on the button is.

Fryguy · #7 08-08-2005, 07:45 PM

Hopefully I can expose a leak in my play here. How is this a standard valuebet on the river? The board paired the top flop card. I'd like to think at least 1 person had top pair on the flop and just made trips to beat me. Sure we are still good here a portion (large portion?) of the time, but is this bet really for value? Anybody have any numbers?

Does the situation change if it's a much higher card pairing (say a K)?

kapw7 · #8 08-08-2005, 07:56 PM

I would lie if I said that my read was 100%. But no reads are (at least my reads). And I am not risking too much I think. I rarely (or maybe never) saw a 4-way flop to be checked around in these games. And If I am right I can trap the field for 2 bets.

Redd · #9 08-08-2005, 08:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hopefully I can expose a leak in my play here. How is this a standard valuebet on the river? The board paired the top flop card. I'd like to think at least 1 person had top pair on the flop and just made trips to beat me. Sure we are still good here a portion (large portion?) of the time, but is this bet really for value? Anybody have any numbers?

Does the situation change if it's a much higher card pairing (say a K)?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think we're guaranteed that someone has a six. The 'kool aid' line (as Grunchcan likes to put it) says that the board pairing actually makes it less likely that someone has one. This is a very draw-heavy board with many potential OESDs and flush draws that can correctly call. There are several loose players who will likely incorrectly call with a gutshot or other crap.

Any math would be a total estimate and highly variable with more specific reads, etc. But given what we've heard about the flop bettor, I'd guess we're best on the river about 3 times out of 4 after the first guy checks.

kapw7 · #10 08-08-2005, 08:14 PM

These guys will call anything. Low pair, mid pair, A-high, K-high etc. I am gratefull to the guy that developed the PokerAce software so you can see the mucked hands in real time.
You just lose money by missing these bets. I would also bet doubled K board. Doubled A board I think you can expect either to induce a bluff or ppl to fold fearing you have an ace. So I am not sure about this. I would still bet just to be safe, unless it was heads-up.

Results:
SB has 8c Tc (two pair, tens and sixes).
Hero has Jh Th (two pair, tens and sixes).

As you see the guy paid 7.5SB drawing dead when he could just fold pre flop.