Can This Be Right?

[Lestat]

I have a friend who according to PT, has a fold to a river bet of 52%!! At first, I thought this was WAY too high! The pot will certainly be offering 2 to 1 most times, so he is making it correct for opponents to bluff him 100% of the time.

However, he disputes this on several counts...

One, he claims that this figure is skewered because he is the one who is usually betting the river when he gets there. Other than the rare occasions where he's trying to induce a bluff or planning on check/calling with top pair, if he doesn't bet the river himself, he's on a busted draw. So he says this is a big reason why it *looks* like he's folding too much.

The other thing is that he has an ultra-aggressive style of play. Routinely 3 and 4 betting the turn often with top pair types of hands. So he claims it would take an incredibly courageous bet or raise on the river to bluff him out of a pot. He definitely doesn't think this is happening too often and when it does, he figures the guy made a great play and deserves to win it sometimes.

I'm not so sure... If he's playing that aggressively, the pots will be big by the time the river card arrives and he should NOT be folding anything with showdown value. But he insists that he is quite sure he is not folding too many winners.

He normally doesn't read 2+2, but I told him I'd post this subject here to see what some of the best online players think (sorry that this relates to the party 30-60 online and I'm not sure this qualifies as higher limit, but I wanted opinions from the best of the best).

So what do you guys think? Is it possible that 52% folding to a river bet is Ok? The guy beats the games pretty good (well over 1/100 6-tabling through 400k hands). I'm just wondering if he could be doing better. Most of the good players in my database have a fold percentage in the thirties. I'd appreciate comments on this. Thanks.

[Lestat]

75+ views and no opinions yet? Maybe 52% is not so out of line after all. ??

[Paluka]

I'm waiting to get home so I can look at my 30/60 pokertracker.

[phish]

Another very important issue is that if is super-aggressive and raising with such thin hands on the turn, his opponents will know that and may well be underestimating his true strength. Hence his opponents may be betting a mediocre hand for value on the river (top pair [censored] kicker or worse) and getting him to lay down a split pot or better hand.
There appears, from your description, a huge mismatch between how he plays the turn and how he plays the river. Such mismatches in play is usually not healthy.

[Lestat]

Thanks guys-

I've seen his database (as well as watched him play). He is NOT folding top pair hands on the river regardless if he's bet into or raised. In fact, he claims (and I've never seen), him fold any legitimate hand to a bet or raise on the river.

So maybe what I'm really asking is: What does the "folded to a river bet" entail? And how accurate of a barometer is it in determing WHEN you're folding? Again, if he's betting (or calling) most of the time he gets to the river, and mostly folds only when he has a very bad hand or a busted draw, do you think it's possible that the 52% number might be misleading?

[ QUOTE ]
He is NOT folding top pair hands on the river regardless if he's bet into or raised. In fact, he claims (and I've never seen), him fold any legitimate hand to a bet or raise on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does he also take alot of hands to the river that most players wouldn't? I guess we are headed towards this: what are his fold numbers on the turn, flop, and preflop?

[Lestat]

Fold:

pf - 79.99

flop - 17.24

turn - 13.10

river - 13.57

But his aggression stats seem off the charts (hope he won't be pissed I'm posting this -lol)....


Agression:

pf - 1.39

flop - 3.31

turn - 4.72

river - 3.35

His fold percentages aren't TOO far off from mine, but his aggression factors (especially the river) is WAY higher than mine!

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold:

pf - 79.99

flop - 17.24

turn - 13.10

river - 13.57

But his aggression stats seem off the charts (hope he won't be pissed I'm posting this -lol)....


Agression:

pf - 1.39

flop - 3.31

turn - 4.72

river - 3.35

His fold percentages aren't TOO far off from mine, but his aggression factors (especially the river) is WAY higher than mine!

[/ QUOTE ]

Those aggression stats are sick. My river aggression is <2. He is betting or raising the river over 75% of the time (that he doesnt fold). I think with those stats 50% + makes a lot of sense.....

[ QUOTE ]
Fold:

pf - 79.99
flop - 17.24
turn - 13.10
river - 13.57


[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't seem unreasonable. He folds to a bet on the river 52% of the time, but most of the time he is putting in a bet or the hand is checked down, so the total amount of folds he makes on the river is just 14%. I would not try to push a player with these stats off a hand... but maybe I should take a closer look at how I set up my stat display, since this guy apparently would fold 50% of the time to a river donk bet.

[DpR]

I'm at 30% and I call a lot. I play a little more passive then I used to, when I would fold to river more like 36%. 52% seems high, but not so much so that I think it is impossible to win that way.

I think it will be a problem when people notice however. If I knew your buddies name, those stats would certainly encourage me to break off some river bluff raises - something I almost never otherwise do.