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#11
12-15-2005, 10:18 AM
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Re: Ace high
The river call is marginal. I like calling the river here because sb could be raising here with many things, draw/made hand/overcards. You're getting enough pot odds to call the turn as well presuming he doesn't have trips.
Turn raise is also a good idea because you can always go for a free showdown or bet if he checks the river. If he's on a straight draw and misses then he won't call the river with anything less than a pair. The raise is also important because you have position advantage and the pot is pretty big. I'll second guess the turn raise if you act first on the turn though, he's likely to call with many hands because of the heavy draw board. 
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#12
12-15-2005, 11:50 AM
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Re: Ace high
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Sure smells an awful lot like AT. [/ QUOTE ] I agree. [/ QUOTE ] Why are we putting villain on exactly one hand? [/ QUOTE ] Because we can beat it?
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#13
12-15-2005, 02:32 PM
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Re: Ace high
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Sure smells an awful lot like AT. [/ QUOTE ] I agree. [/ QUOTE ] Why are we putting villain on exactly one hand? [/ QUOTE ] Because we can beat it? [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] This game has only one flop and bores me.
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#14
12-15-2005, 03:21 PM
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Re: Ace high
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Sure smells an awful lot like AT. [/ QUOTE ] I agree. [/ QUOTE ] Why are we putting villain on exactly one hand? [/ QUOTE ] Because we can beat it? [/ QUOTE ] bingo. put the guy on a hand you can beat and call down.
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#18
12-15-2005, 04:21 PM
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Re: Ace high
Jason thinks I should post more than "standard." Basically I'm a fish who [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s Ace high calldowns but against an aggro opponent you're getting 8.5:2 on a calldown, and being good 1 time in 5.5 is going to be pretty damned easy. I've played against a lot of villains where this is a river fold, because they won't triple barrel you, but as I've moved up I've found people willing to committ a ton of bets in pots that are big (and this one is) trying to move you off anything.
You need to be good here about 18% of the time to show a profit. Against an aggressive villain you will be good close to that amount anyway (esp. against AT/KT/QT). In a situation where the calldown looks to be +EV you also get to see if villain is capable of triple barrel bluffing in the future. Additionally you don't actually need to be good quite 18% on your calldown as sometimes you'll improve and sometimes a river will show up that means you really can't call (JT6). So yeah. It's not a fun calldown and one that you can only make against certain opponents, but against that sort (who Chris seemed to identify but his read was pretty limited), it's +EV. Rob
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#20
12-15-2005, 05:37 PM
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Dumb math
I did this in my head while driving so someone can correct me if it's off. I figured if he's capable of triple barrell bluffing about 20% of the time he has a draw, then it's a good calldown from the turn on.
Basically it goes something like this: Range of hands: Hands that beat us: JTs - 4 JJ/TT - 12 99 - 3 77 - 3 88 - 1 Total - 23 hands. Maybe add A9s-ish hands for 2 or maybe 3, depending on suits, more combinations. 25 hands we're losing to. Draws: AT/KT - 12+12 = 24 combos QTs - 4 combos 28 total combos. If he's capable of triple-barrel bluffing 20% of the time that he has a draw, averaging our calldown out to around 4.5:1 (it's not quite as bad as odds of 4.25:1 because there are some rivers that we will fold and some improvement we can have against his range of "good" hands), then he has .2x28=5.6 combos that we're ahead of, and 25 combos that we're behind. We're good 5.6/30.6 times. 25 times we lose 2 bets (-50BB) and 5.6 times we win a 10.5BB pot (58.8BB). 8.8BB/30.6 possibilities gives us a profit of around .287BB. Most aggressive opposition will have a higher TBB frequency -- from my experience -- than 20% here. I don't think it's as high as 50% or anything ridiculous but I definitely think it's high enough to make the calldown "standard," to try to flesh out sfer's (I refuse to call him The DaveR) one-word comment. Jason mentioned to me over AIM that we could possibly add T9s and J9s to the PFR hands, but once we start to add a wider range, in general, we can increase the overall aggression of the player and the range of hands he'd be willing to play more aggressively after the flop. I honestly think that we can expect a TBB rate of around 25% when he's holding a semibluffing hand (7 total bluffs), we're looking at being good around 19.4%, which is still going to show a bit of a profit. Rob
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