#1
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What are the odds...
I have 87s.
There are five to the flop. I flop a four-flush. I turn the flush. Given all of these events, what are the odds that at least one other player also has a flush? |
#2
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Re: What are the odds...
Not likley.
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#3
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Re: What are the odds...
Well there are 8 of your suit unaccounted for. so a players odds of being dealt both of them is 8/46*7/45 which is about 1 in 33.
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#4
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Re: What are the odds...
So the odds of at least one other player having a flush -- assuming that the starting cards of the players are no more likely to be suited than a random hand is ~ 1 - (1-.02705314)^^4 = 0.10.
So against 4 other players at least one other person will also have a flush 10% of the time under the assumptions above. |
#5
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Re: What are the odds...
Pretty quickly...so correct any errors at your leisure.
Flopping a 4 flush: C(11,2) * 39/C(50,3) = 2145/19600 = 10.94% Turning the flush: 9/47 = 19.15% (assuming 4 flush flopped) Someone else has it as well: C(8,2)/C(46,2) = 28/1035 = 2.7% Note: The two prior odds ignore that someone else has 2 of your suit. |
#6
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Re: What are the odds...
I donīt have excel or a calculator in front of me but I can give you the formula you are looking for. You have to assume that your four opponents are playing four random hands. This obviously is not a good assumption. Given that you have hit a flush by the turn the probability of one or more of your four opponents having a flush also is:
4*(8c2)/(46c2)-(4c2)*(8c4)/(46c4)+(4c3)*(8c6)/(46c6) Cobra |
#7
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Re: What are the odds...
[ QUOTE ]
I have 87s. There are five to the flop. I flop a four-flush. I turn the flush. Given all of these events, what are the odds that at least one other player also has a flush? [/ QUOTE ] not enough information to answer the question |
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