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Old 12-13-2005, 03:30 AM
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Default What percentage of hands do you expect to win??

This is a question I've been wondering about. You've got 10 people at a table. You each have an equal chance of winning any given hand, so should you expect to win about 10% of hands in the long run? The reason I ask is that in the past month I've won maybe 4 - 5%. The month before that it was about 10%. Does this confirm my fears that I've hit a downswing? What are your stats like? I'm wondering what value should be expected here.
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Old 12-13-2005, 04:06 AM
bottomset bottomset is offline
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Default Re: What percentage of hands do you expect to win??

who cares its all about profit

and you will likely win less than your "fair share" since you should be tighter than the average player at your tables
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Old 12-13-2005, 05:05 AM
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Default Re: What percentage of hands do you expect to win??

[ QUOTE ]
who cares its all about profit

and you will likely win less than your "fair share" since you should be tighter than the average player at your tables

[/ QUOTE ]

but arent you ideally more aggressive in those hands? allowing you to take pots away from others when you do enter the pot?

if i have <8% i consider myself to be running bad.
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Old 12-13-2005, 06:51 AM
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Default Re: What percentage of hands do you expect to win??

Hopefully you're only playing 1/5 - 1/4 of your hands. Your loose opponents are playing more hands. You are probably winning a higher percentage of the hands you play.

Basically:
You must think about it in terms of money not pots. Your loose opponents have a higher "turn over" of hands- so may win more pots, but also they loose as many" so their "success" is far more luck dependent. Their swings will be higher- just look at PT stats (if you have PT) for any game- keep checking net winnings for your opponents every 5 hands or so- you'll see them jumping about all over the place. Your's should be much less volatile.

Ian
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Old 12-13-2005, 09:45 AM
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Default Re: What percentage of hands do you expect to win??

I don't think you are asking the right question. Other than BBs/100, the only other stat I find interesting is how many show-downs do I win? When this number is <50%, I usually find a leak in my current game (generally, I'm too loose in EP). When it is >50%, I am almost always +EV for the session. This is a really easy stat to see w/o poker tracker
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Old 12-13-2005, 10:51 AM
ajm36 ajm36 is offline
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Default Re: What percentage of hands do you expect to win??

I expect to win all of them--never works out though, so I lead a life of utter disappointment.
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Old 12-13-2005, 11:45 AM
davelin davelin is offline
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Default Re: What percentage of hands do you expect to win??

[ QUOTE ]
This is a question I've been wondering about. You've got 10 people at a table. You each have an equal chance of winning any given hand, so should you expect to win about 10% of hands in the long run?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because of your tighter pre-flop play this is generally incorrect.
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Old 12-13-2005, 12:22 PM
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Default Re: What percentage of hands do you expect to win??

Pokerstove is an (admittedly imperfect) but invaluable tool for this sort of analysis. For example, let's suppose that the only hands you play are pocket pairs, all broadway suited, and AK,AQ,AJ,AT,KK,KQ. Not counting blinds, that's 13.4% of all hands. Assume the opponents play all of those but add in anything with an ace in it and anything where both cards are T+, and all suited connectors. The villains are playing 30% of their hands (discounting blinds).

Pokerstove (again imperfectly) will tell you that with 5 players to the flop, you are going to win 25% of the hands rather than the 20% you'd expect.

The problem with pokerstove is that it assumes all players play out all cards. In real life, you're going to be executing a better betting strategy to ensure that when you win, you win larger and when you lose, you lose less. You have to take Pokerstove's numbers for what they are and not try to make them into some sort of crystal ball.

An example of this is where pokerstove calculates that AA is a winner 52% of the time. In real life, of course, AA is a winner ~75% of the time. The reason for this (I think) is all the folks who played 22 and didn't improve on the flop folded against you're continued aggression. Some of the folks who had a pocket pair folded preflop and in fact would've gotten their set on the flop.
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Old 12-13-2005, 12:33 PM
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Default Re: What percentage of hands do you expect to win??

[ QUOTE ]
if i have <8% i consider myself to be running bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a good number to determine if you are in a downswing? What about "win when see flop" or "win at showdown?"
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  #10  
Old 12-13-2005, 01:32 PM
PokerSlut PokerSlut is offline
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Default Re: What percentage of hands do you expect to win??

In the long run you will win 10% of your hands in a 10-handed game, assuming everyone plays to the showdown every hand.

The problem is that some people will win more and less depending upon their hand selection. As an extreme example, say you only play pocket aces. You cannot possibly win 10% of your hands if you only play aces because you don't get aces even close to 10% of the time, and even if you did, they don't always win.
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