General Philosophy

[PokerSlut]

If you were playing NL, the information is worth more and your philosophy applies better. In micro limit you need the best cards to win a majority of the time, and you get most of the information you crave for free online since the mucked hands that make it to showdown are recorded in the hand histories on your hard drive.

So, for microlimits you should revise your list as follows: cards, people, information.

[Frank Zappy]

Just under 20K hands and I'm 2.1BB/100.

You take very good notes!

[jaxUp]

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Just under 20K hands and I'm 2.1BB/100.


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Over 20k hands, your WR doesn't mean much. Also, you seem to have some skill and could probably manage better than this if you quit calling down/raising for information.

[McGahee]

Are you playing No Limit live? I hope so, because if you play online low limit your philisophy is horrible.

[PokerSlut]

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Over 20k hands, your WR doesn't mean much.

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This is complete BS.

There are 3 factors: winrate, # of hands played, and standard deviation. We know two of the factors already, and even using a grossly inflated standard deviation of 55BB/100, he is still a winning player out to 99.99999% confidence. Using a more normal, but still inflated standard deviation of 21BB/100 we can say with 99.9% confidence that he's earning at least 1.5BB/100.

This is basic stuff you can find in the FAQ.

I am a HUGE fan of information at the on-line table.


Find a cheaper way to gather it.

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Over 20k hands, your WR doesn't mean much.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is complete BS.

There are 3 factors: winrate, # of hands played, and standard deviation. We know two of the factors already, and even using a grossly inflated standard deviation of 55BB/100, he is still a winning player out to 99.99999% confidence. Using a more normal, but still inflated standard deviation of 21BB/100 we can say with 99.9% confidence that he's earning at least 1.5BB/100.

This is basic stuff you can find in the FAQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm, I am open to the idea that you are correct, but I have often seen people saying WR doesn't start to converge until like 100k hands. Maybe you could go over a little bit of the math for me, or just quote where you saw it in the FAQ (I looked but did not find it). FWIW, I recall a post where one of the more veteran posters (Josh. perhaps) ran 10 100k hand samples for players with 2BB/100, and got results as low as 1BB/100 and as high as 3BB/100 over that sample. I do have a very limited knowledge of stats and am familiar with terminology, but am not exactly sure how you came to these conclusions. Please help. Thanks.

Brad

[Frank Zappy]

This has certainly been interesting and education and my way of playing is likely costing me some fair portion of a bet every 100 hands.

I’m going to make an effort to tighten up for the next few thousand hands and I’ll report back.

Thanks for the really excellent advise and insight!

[MrWookie47]

20k hands is 200 blocks of 100 hands. With a standard deviation of 20 BB/100 (a little high), then the uncertainty of his win rate after 20k hands is 20 / (sqrt(200)) = 1.41 BB/100. OP is about 1.5 standard deviations above break even, so we know with 93% confidence that he's a winning player at this limit. Your math is a little funky, my friend.

[jaxUp]

Hmmm, here's a link from the FAQ which seems to disagree with you. Homer's "How many hands do I need to play..."