Gutschot chase correct according to pot odds?

#1 12-11-2005, 10:53 PM

I chased my gutshot str8 draw. It was correct accroding to implied odds. Please confirm.

PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG+2 posts a blind of $0.05. MP2 posts a blind of $0.05.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 (poster) checks, MP1 calls, MP2 (poster) checks, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Was this call in the first place too loose? I think not. Read on...

Flop: (9 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (9 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

I was getting 75:5 pot odds and I had chance of nuts 10.8 : 1. With so many dudes in, lets say one 8 is out. My odds of having the best hand are then 15.7 : 1. Still favourable since I could squeeze some bets later out. My implied odds were thus like 25 : 1. Am I correct? Read on...

Turn: (8.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (8 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls, Hero calls, BB folds.

I was getting now 14.5 : 1 pot odds. Lets discount improving odds further because 2 diamonds are out. Lets say I will improve 19 : 1. Do you think I should call now??? With 6 people lets say i could squeeze 5 bets out of them with check raise. My implied odds are thus 20.5 : 1.

Would you call?

The end of the hand in grey below: 
River: (15.50 BB) 9 of heart (7 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, Button calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 19.50 BB


Results in white below: 
UTG has 7d 8d (straight, nine high).
UTG+2 has 4d 3c (straight, seven high).
MP2 has 6h Ts (one pair, sixes).
Button has Kc 4c (one pair, kings).
Outcome: UTG wins 19.50 BB. 

Thank you for your time! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

masse75 · #2 12-11-2005, 11:05 PM

With no reads (who needs reads at .05/.10), I probably would call the 1/2 bet with 9To. It's worth a shot, and you can get lucky and flop trips or the occasional straight.

Such a loose and passive game, I'd probably check call. Eventual winner is an idiot for not protecting his flopped straight. He should be raising to drive people out (like people drawing to a gutshot winner) and protecting his large pot.

tyler_cracker · #3 12-11-2005, 11:57 PM

Completing this is perfect.

You don't even need to worried about implied odds -- you're getting sufficient immediate odds to draw to your gutshot, especially since you will take a lot of money from anyone with a lone 9.

The math looks a little sketchy in your odds calculations. What's up with 75:5??

If the river were an 8, check/raising would be a big mistake, as a 4-straight board will scare the crap out of someone without a straight. Just donk the river and hope someone wants to go to war.

jdd12 · #4 12-12-2005, 12:20 AM

His 75:5 is pot size in cents vs amount to call in cents (edit: you probably realize that and were asking why he put it that way - sorry).

I'm still trying to learn, how did you come up with 15.7 (flop) and 19:1 (turn) to improve? Isn't it 14.7:1 (3 outs as you described) and 23:1 (with 2 as you described)?

As far as the hand, I'd bet right out if the river was an 8. You'd have the nuts, and you wouldn't want it checked through with 4 to a straight on the board. You never know, someone with a 9 high straight, or the guy who just rivered two pair with that 8 that we assumed was already out, may do you the favor of raising.

jdd

benkath1 · #5 12-12-2005, 12:25 AM

Yes, you were correct. You also have over card outs on the flop. On the turn I definately call.

PokerSlut · #6 12-12-2005, 12:58 AM

*grunch*

I would definitely call the 1/2 bet preflop with that many players in the pot.

Call on flop looks fine. Call on turn looks OK to me, too.

PokerSlut · #7 12-12-2005, 01:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You also have over card outs on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with the overcards is that if you hit them you are quite possibly making someone else's straight, so you have to discount them a bit from 6 pure outs.

ajm36 · #8 12-12-2005, 01:04 AM

Superb on the PF call. You do not even need to do implied odds calculation for this, this is a straight pot odds call.

benkath1 · #9 12-12-2005, 02:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You also have over card outs on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with the overcards is that if you hit them you are quite possibly making someone else's straight, so you have to discount them a bit from 6 pure outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

true true. I usually go with 4 to 4.5 in this situation. (for the overs)

#10 12-12-2005, 08:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You also have over card outs on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with the overcards is that if you hit them you are quite possibly making someone else's straight, so you have to discount them a bit from 6 pure outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

true true. I usually go with 4 to 4.5 in this situation. (for the overs)

[/ QUOTE ]

I think 4-4.5 is far too many. It's a multiway pot, and I wouldn't credit the nines with even one out here: they complete the straight for anyone with an 8. Let's say that the turn is the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], instead of the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]: we still wouldn't call when our 9 hits on the river. The ten is good for 1.5 or thereabouts.

He has the odds to chase just his gutshot to the stonecold nuts, and when he hits, he will get action from anyone with a bare nine. The overcards really don't enter into the equation very much on this coordinated board.