Someone please help me explain this to my mother

[man]

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so you're saying there's a chance...

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yes.

I can't think of any witty picture to post.

[Duke]

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I don't see why it's so hard for you guys to accept that psychic abilities are possible.

I think the majority of cases are subjects of delusion. but given that the probability of the coincidences mentioned are on the order of one in a billion, or a million, or whatever, it seems reasonable to say that there's something to it. aren't most of you mathematically adpet? of course you can dismiss it all as a coincidence. but the lower the probability becomes, the more you have to accept that it's equally probable, or even more probable, that these predictions actually are guided by psychic abilities.

in short, I think it's enough to say that there are some things in life we can't explain, and we have to accept these things. you don't have to find a rational justification for everything, because for some things, it simply doesn't exist.

edit: syntax

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Edit it again to start with: "I am currently posting from a location where it is opposite day."

~D

[Duke]

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Why is it so hard for you to believe that Elvis is alive? So many people have claimed to seen elvis. So it must be true right?

Melch

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Melch,

I think that given that elvis is a pretty recognizable character, but not completely unique, it seems reasonable that a lot of elvis fans could catch a glimpse of a guy who looks like elvis, and because they just want to believe it, or because they want to be famous, they'll report it to others.

but just because they claim to have seen them doesn't mean they actually did see him. as a matter of probability, it seems completely reasonable that a few thousand americans fit this description.

in short, I don't think you read my argument well. or maybe I didn't write it well. whatever. the point is that the more cases that stack up, the lower the probability of sheer coincidence becomes.

probably,
man

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so you're saying there's a chance...

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What was all that one in a million talk?

~D

[Jack of Arcades]

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So how do we explain things such as how the psychic guessed the mother's name and the petunias at the funeral thing? Those are pretty darn specific.

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The mother has selective memory, probably, and doesn't remember all the times the psychic was fishing for information and comign up with nothing.

[gorie]

i saw a movie once where the psychic only accepted donations, rather than charging a fee, and she was really psychic. so it's probably a real psychic.

[MelchyBeau]

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Melch,

I think that given that elvis is a pretty recognizable character, but not completely unique, it seems reasonable that a lot of elvis fans could catch a glimpse of a guy who looks like elvis, and because they just want to believe it, or because they want to be famous, they'll report it to others.

but just because they claim to have seen them doesn't mean they actually did see him. as a matter of probability, it seems completely reasonable that a few thousand americans fit this description.

in short, I don't think you read my argument well. or maybe I didn't write it well. whatever. the point is that the more cases that stack up, the lower the probability of sheer coincidence becomes.

probably,
man

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I got your point, you were trying to said it is quite probable that there are psychics due to 'math'. Well no. There is a phrase "there are 3 types of lies, Lies, damn lies, and statistics" You can't use probability at this point especially when you don't have all the data. You are only hearing about the times that the psychic was correct. You aren't hearing about the times that the psychics were completely wrong.

There are people who have extraordinary abilities to read nonverbals. Most of these people use these types of abilities.

Bottom line people are gullible. Thats why the Nigerian scammers still operate. Or why spammers still make money etc.

Melch

[HopeydaFish]

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So how do we explain things such as how the psychic guessed the mother's name and the petunias at the funeral thing? Those are pretty darn specific.

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The mother has selective memory, probably, and doesn't remember all the times the psychic was fishing for information and comign up with nothing.

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Also, there were a few "little girls" on Little House on The Prairie, and one of the little girls was bound to have a name that resembled someone that the OP's mother's knew. And if it turned out that the mother didn't know anyone with such a name, the cold reader would have quickly moved on and the "Little House" line of questioning would then be forgotten by the mother.

I used to visit this site quite often: James Randi
He's on a crusade to expose fraud artists who claim paranormal powers.

[man]

it's hard to make this argument from probability, because you can't calculate the probablity. I'm just going off of what *seems* like a wildly improbable event (that being the combination of very improbable events).

there are probably a lot of psychics who use cold reading, or whatever other techniques there are. there are probably people who would do this, but I can't imagine that every psychic out there gets off on decieving people. and this woman clearly isn't in it for the money.

my main point is that simply that something can't be proved isn't sufficient grounds for dismissing it. there are a lot of things like this. like, I dunno, God. I think the only answer we can give while still maintaining our intellectual self-respect (for now, I guess) is "I dunno."

several of my friends (a few guys in their forties) have seen ghosts. a guy my brother used to work with would give him things that he needed because he "felt a tremor in the force." a guy I know is friends with native americans who shapeshift. there's no reasonable explanation for these things other than "they're lying and/or mistaken." that's why I sort of think it's pointless to argue that it doesn't exist, because the only means of doing that requires someone to have f-ed up. does it really make you guys that uncomfortable to think that our current means of understanding the world are insufficient?

[Blarg]

Just because she asks for donations doesn't mean she isn't into money. People might well give more in donations than they would be willing to pay, especially if they were astonished by the psychic's "powers" on the one hand or afraid that a less than generous donation might cut off her services later. You are not drawing an accurate conclusion here.


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does it really make you guys that uncomfortable to think that our current means of understanding the world are insufficient?

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It doesn't make me uncomfortable at all to think that our ability to understand the world is limited; in fact I take it for granted. What does make me uncomfortable is how easily people let their standards of reason evaporate in a demeaning desperation to try to find answers, and how sad the results can be. That the emotional pain of someone's family member or friend dying should be exploited and used to lead them into abandoning reason makes me uncomfortable. That people's personal traumas and need for certainty in an uncertain world should make them go down such a sad and crooked road makes me sad. That their vulnerability, sorrow, and loneliness in an indifferent, overwhelming universe sometimes prompts them to dump large sums of money, or any money at all, into the pockets of predators offering false hope sometimes makes me quite sad and uncomfortable if I happen to think about it, and perhaps even a little angry.

[man]

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Just because she asks for donations doesn't mean she isn't into money. People might well give more in donations than they would be willing to pay, especially if they were astonished by the psychic's "powers" on the one hand or afraid that a less than generous donation might cut off her services later. You are not drawing an accurate conclusion here.

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I seriously doubt that her profits are maximized in this way. but perhaps she doesn't want to go through the stress of managing a business. it isn't central to my point though.

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What does make me uncomfortable is how easily people let their standards of reason evaporate in a demeaning desperation to try to find answers, and how sad the results can be.

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well you have to admit that the results are only sad if you don't believe what's happening. but I understand what you're saying. although I think that you can criticise the "pyschics" who take advantage of people without rejecting psychic powers in general. but it's a fine line fo sho.