Two respected posters disagree

[TrailofTears]

Raise to 40 = 15+40+40+40=135. Your turn bet of ~50 gives the flush draw odds of 50 to win at least 235, which is ~4.6:1. The flush needs 42/7= ~6:1 to call, which is slightly incorrect, even if the other player comes along, which brings the odds from 235:50 to 285:50, or 5.7:1. Close, but still incorrect.

Either way you aren't giving correct odds to the other players.

This may be my first math post ever, so I'm sorry if I am incorrect here. I guess I wanted to work it out to see if the tiny raise would allow correct odds for the flush draw on the turn, but it doesn't.

I suppose that this is empirical evidence that the raise to 40 is better, but I don't think the push is terrible by any means. We do, however, look for the optimal line.

-T

[DrPublo]

Dave,

Raising for $40 here is essentially a min-bet, especially given the trapped caller. The SB would be getting 85:25 immediate odds and the BB, if the SB calls, would be getting a SWEET 110:25 odds. That's not steep for any sort of draw at all.

In addition, I don't think there are nearly as many blank turns as you do. Potentially, I don't want to see any diamond, 9, T, J, and maybe A or K. Nearly half the deck could leave me in an uncomfortable situation. Say the turn is the 9h and the BB pushes. Now what?

I also feel like most of the hands that will call a raise to $40 will also call a raise to $60, and that if they will call that much they also much call my push. I was counting on my opponents in this hand understanding that the only reasonable raise I can make here protecting any sort of hand is a push (i.e. I can't raise to $60 and leave $30 behind), and thus discount my push slightly. In addition, I suspected a flop push may look like a semi-bluff diamond draw and coerce a call out of AQ or better (and stubborn JJ sometimes as well).

Considering that I am generally so aggro, I feel like this play is entirely consistent with my image and therefore good for the metagame.

I strongly back pushing here. I wonder how things change if the board is 2d 8d Qx, and now AdQd is a possibility for either of the villains.

The Doc

[Wayfare]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise to 40 = 15+40+40+40=135. Your turn bet of ~50 gives the flush draw odds of 50 to win at least 235, which is ~4.6:1. The flush needs 42/7= ~6:1 to call, which is slightly incorrect, even if the other player comes along, which brings the odds from 235:50 to 285:50, or 5.7:1. Close, but still incorrect.

Either way you aren't giving correct odds to the other players.

This may be my first math post ever, so I'm sorry if I am incorrect here. I guess I wanted to work it out to see if the tiny raise would allow correct odds for the flush draw on the turn, but it doesn't.

I suppose that this is empirical evidence that the raise to 40 is better, but I don't think the push is terrible by any means. We do, however, look for the optimal line.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]

You are also treating the problem as if there are no dead money considerations AND there is a flush draw out there, which is the worst (and probably the least likely) of the scenerios.

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise to 40 = 15+40+40+40=135. Your turn bet of ~50 gives the flush draw odds of 50 to win at least 235, which is ~4.6:1. The flush needs 42/7= ~6:1 to call, which is slightly incorrect, even if the other player comes along, which brings the odds from 235:50 to 285:50, or 5.7:1. Close, but still incorrect.

Either way you aren't giving correct odds to the other players.

This may be my first math post ever, so I'm sorry if I am incorrect here. I guess I wanted to work it out to see if the tiny raise would allow correct odds for the flush draw on the turn, but it doesn't.

I suppose that this is empirical evidence that the raise to 40 is better, but I don't think the push is terrible by any means. We do, however, look for the optimal line.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]

This analysis neglects the times the turn completes the flush and I'm faced with a push in front of me. Then I'm getting 185:50 (assuming BB, who's most likely to have the draw, pushes after an SB check) to fill, which doesn't give ME odds to draw. And yet I'm not folding a set in a monster pot after getting 1/2 my stack in on the flop.

The Doc

The Doc

[Wayfare]

[ QUOTE ]
Dave,

Raising for $40 here is essentially a min-bet, especially given the trapped caller. The SB would be getting 85:25 immediate odds and the BB, if the SB calls, would be getting a SWEET 110:25 odds. That's not steep for any sort of draw at all.

In addition, I don't think there are nearly as many blank turns as you do. Potentially, I don't want to see any diamond, 9, T, J, and maybe A or K. Nearly half the deck could leave me in an uncomfortable situation. Say the turn is the 9h and the BB pushes. Now what?

I also feel like most of the hands that will call a raise to $40 will also call a raise to $60, and that if they will call that much they also much call my push. I was counting on my opponents in this hand understanding that the only reasonable raise I can make here protecting any sort of hand is a push (i.e. I can't raise to $60 and leave $30 behind), and thus discount my push slightly. In addition, I suspected a flop push may look like a semi-bluff diamond draw and coerce a call out of AQ or better (and stubborn JJ sometimes as well).

Considering that I am generally so aggro, I feel like this play is entirely consistent with my image and therefore good for the metagame.

I strongly back pushing here. I wonder how things change if the board is 2d 8d Qx, and now AdQd is a possibility for either of the villains.

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]

I am skeptical that for these stack sizes and this board, the optimal line is to make a raise by which NO hand you beat will call you. That is so counter intuitive that I will need a lot of convincing to make me believe it.

If the 9h comes off I instacall a push.

[DrPublo]

Dave,

I think it's bad to raise to roughly half your stack. Are you really going to fold to a turn diamond? If you're going to raise to half the stack, put it all in--that's an old NL credo, and assuming the other players in the hand know this too, they must discount the strength implied by my push.

The Doc

[Proofrock]

I lean towards a push. At least one of them has a hand, and often enough at this level an all-in on a flush draw board will be interpreted as a semi-bluff and get paid off.

Raising to 40, on the other hand, clearly announces that you have a hand and makes it easier for other players to get away from -- if i have AA here and you make a reasonable raise after a pot-sized raise and a cold call, I'm much more worried than if you had pushed.

-cj

[Wayfare]

I wish you hadn't signed off of IM, and where is that essay by sklansky that is titled "should you let him in?"

I can't find the damn thing.

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
I am skeptical that for these stack sizes and this board, the optimal line is to make a raise by which NO hand you beat will call you.

[/ QUOTE ]

AdKd calls in a heartbeat.
AxAd also likely calls.
KxKd calls at least half the time.
AdQx calls probably 20% of the time.
TdJd sometimes calls, as does 9dTd and 9dJd.

Add more hands to the above listing for extra bad PP 100NL players as appropriate...

The Doc

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
I wish you hadn't signed off of IM, and where is that essay by sklansky that is titled "should you let him in?"

I can't find the damn thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I changed computers to put together my PT numbers for the night and do some other bookkeeping.

The Doc