Two respected posters disagree

DrPublo · #1 07-20-2005, 01:11 AM

I hope I'm not going too far in my use of the word respected .

Here's the situation. PP 100NL 6max. I start the hand with about $95, SB and BB both cover me but not by much (so its not like they can play a big sidepot against each other).

Two limps, and I limp 22 on the button. SB raises to $4, BB calls, the limpers fold and I call.

Flop ($15): 2s 8d Qd

SB leads for $15. BB calls.

The question is how much to raise to? I argued for a push, but a very respected poster on this forum recommended a much smaller raise, to about $40 with the intention of getting all in on any turn. I'll let this respected poster identify himself and explain his reasoning.

Whats your raise and why?

Thanks in advance for any feedback.

The Doc

LethalRose · #2 07-20-2005, 01:14 AM

I call the flop and hope the SB bets and BB calls.

then push. I want to keep the BB in this hand and extract chips from him, raising allows him to get off his hand.

ghostface · #3 07-20-2005, 01:19 AM

And when the turn comes unpairing diamond and one of them pushes how would you feel about the flop call?

#4 07-20-2005, 01:29 AM

I like the small raise and I also like the push. But what you do depends on your read of the SB. I favor the push in this situation more than others mainly because, I've seen a ton of players minraise AQ and KQ OOP. These are the same players that overplay top pair and a push will often be called.

TheWorstPlayer · #5 07-20-2005, 01:34 AM

I agree with the other poster. A small raise is best. It's unlikely that he is on a draw and you want to maximize your earn against a worse made hand. Forget the draw. Play as if he has top pair, which is his most likely hand here. Raise smallish and get it all in on the turn.

TrailofTears · #6 07-20-2005, 01:41 AM

A smallish raise is the same as a call. Either way when the betting gets to you on the turn, a push is just a pot bet.

I like a push, especially with the flush draw out there. Not because I fear the flush draw, but because it is more likely that they will call your push.

-T

DrPublo · #7 07-20-2005, 01:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It's unlikely that he is on a draw

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly disagree. SB led for pot and the BB cold-called. One of them should have a pretty big piece or draw, if not SB then DEFINITELY the BB. I think I can expect one of them to play back at me a substantial percentage of the time.

Also, assume you're right and neither one is one the draw. Let's say I make a small raise or even just call and a diamond slides off. How am I going to get paid off, and how will I even know it's still safe to put my money in? Bear in mind that even if I just call, the pot is going to be $60 going into the turn.

The Doc

TheWorstPlayer · #8 07-20-2005, 01:46 AM

Doesnt matter what comes on the turn, you are obviously committing yourself by raising the flop. But the point is to make sure you keep in hands that are drawing near dead even at the expense of potentially letting someone in somewhat cheaply with a draw. By raising small, you are betting that either someone doesn't have the flush draw, or if they do, this time will be one of the 3/4 of the time that it doesn't hit on the turn. In exchange for that, you make it more likely to keep made hands in that you for sure want to stay in. Pushing here is a big raise. There is a good chance weaker made hands will fold. It is not worth taking that risk to protect against a draw three handed.

TrailofTears · #9 07-20-2005, 02:01 AM

Raise to 40 = 15+40+40+40=135. Your turn bet of ~50 gives the flush draw odds of 50 to win at least 235, which is ~4.6:1. The flush needs 42/7= ~6:1 to call, which is slightly incorrect, even if the other player comes along, which brings the odds from 235:50 to 285:50, or 5.7:1. Close, but still incorrect.

Either way you aren't giving correct odds to the other players.

This may be my first math post ever, so I'm sorry if I am incorrect here. I guess I wanted to work it out to see if the tiny raise would allow correct odds for the flush draw on the turn, but it doesn't.

I suppose that this is empirical evidence that the raise to 40 is better, but I don't think the push is terrible by any means. We do, however, look for the optimal line.

-T

Wayfare · #10 07-20-2005, 02:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Raise to 40 = 15+40+40+40=135. Your turn bet of ~50 gives the flush draw odds of 50 to win at least 235, which is ~4.6:1. The flush needs 42/7= ~6:1 to call, which is slightly incorrect, even if the other player comes along, which brings the odds from 235:50 to 285:50, or 5.7:1. Close, but still incorrect.

Either way you aren't giving correct odds to the other players.

This may be my first math post ever, so I'm sorry if I am incorrect here. I guess I wanted to work it out to see if the tiny raise would allow correct odds for the flush draw on the turn, but it doesn't.

I suppose that this is empirical evidence that the raise to 40 is better, but I don't think the push is terrible by any means. We do, however, look for the optimal line.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]

You are also treating the problem as if there are no dead money considerations AND there is a flush draw out there, which is the worst (and probably the least likely) of the scenerios.