Turn CR wiffs, River decision?

PSW · #1 08-26-2005, 02:26 PM

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

BB is 60/0/.6 after 25 hands, MP1 is 77/18/1.2 after 20 hands...

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero calls, 2 folds, MP1 raises, 5 folds, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks.

Went for the checkraise...

River: (6.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, MP1 calls, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Missed the CR on the flop, gotta raise the river. Js will call... Call the threebet?

Final Pot: 15.25 BB

deception5 · #2 08-26-2005, 02:36 PM

Since you don't know if MP1 was going for a free card or not (well, you do now), you should bet this turn (this will also make your hand look like top pair).

River is fine.

#3 08-26-2005, 02:47 PM

Why do you fire right away on the flop?

irishpint · #4 08-26-2005, 03:04 PM

if you feel fiesty, id c'r the flop since mp1 is going to bet (usually) and you can trap the field. on the turn you need to bet, since he has overs and is taking a free card here very often. when BB 3bets you i think you're screwed on the river but obviously call. and yes, you need to raise that.

Eeegah · #5 08-26-2005, 03:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you fire right away on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to say for value, but lookie what pokerstove says:

Board: 4h 9s Th
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 31.1383 % 30.45% 00.69% { QcJc }
Hand 2: 29.8615 % 28.95% 00.91% {*}
Hand 3: 39.0002 % 38.18% 00.82% { TT+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo }

*any suited, pair, broadway

Far less than I expected, maybe because of the possibility of domination should we spike a pair. It's possible that MP1 is raising with a lot more hands than that but I don't want to make a judgement call there after only 25 hands.

PSW · #6 08-26-2005, 04:23 PM

My reason for betting into the PF raiser is that I want him to raise and have BB fold. BB could have AJ, AQ, KQ, KJs and have odds (or nearly) to call one bet, but would be wrong to call two. This could clean up my QJ against a possible AK PF raiser...

Comments?

PSW · #7 08-27-2005, 10:38 AM

*bump* Just hoping for any last thoughts....

Redd · #8 08-27-2005, 10:59 AM

I think even after 25 hands we can assume his range is a little bigger Eeegah. But I still probably just c/c the flop since we don't have enough players to get any value.

If this guy plays like his numbers suggest, then I'd try to c/r the turn too.

After whiffing the turn, I'd probably just go for overcalls against a guy this loose. MP1 were tighter, I'd raise-call because I wouldn't expect him to be showing down. As it is, I think he'll give us the bet we would have made from BB and we don't open ourselves up to a 3-bet. He's got a pretty hearty looking hand right about now. FWIW, this is exactly the reason I wouldn't value-raise the flop.

Redd · #9 08-27-2005, 11:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
My reason for betting into the PF raiser is that I want him to raise and have BB fold. BB could have AJ, AQ, KQ, KJs and have odds (or nearly) to call one bet, but would be wrong to call two. This could clean up my QJ against a possible AK PF raiser...

Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the times that:

1) BB has a better queen,
2) he didn't reraise pf,
3) he folds it for two but not one, and
4) you hit a queen on a later street

are thin enough not to justify the cost of betting into him.

Plus we're giving up a "sweet" check-raise if we hit our more likely straight outs. I'm sure there's some math for this, but between the flop value-deficeit and missed c/r BB it seems like you're paying about 1/3 to 1/2 of a SB to try and push him off and I don't think that these four conditions will coincide 1 in every 15 times.

Rev. Good Will · #10 08-27-2005, 11:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why do you fire right away on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to say for value, but lookie what pokerstove says:

Board: 4h 9s Th
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 31.1383 % 30.45% 00.69% { QcJc }
Hand 2: 29.8615 % 28.95% 00.91% {*}
Hand 3: 39.0002 % 38.18% 00.82% { TT+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo }

*any suited, pair, broadway

Far less than I expected, maybe because of the possibility of domination should we spike a pair. It's possible that MP1 is raising with a lot more hands than that but I don't want to make a judgement call there after only 25 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think what fozed meant is that betting into the PFR is usually begging for him to blast away the field.

Interesting how we don't have an edge here, but let me point out the hands you are putting villian on right now is very narrow. his PFR is 18% for christ sakes.