Art's little hand of the week.

[thesharpie]

The problem is he has a king less than a 3rd of the time if he has a normal opening range for an 18% PFR. So you're buying less than 1/3 of 3 outs in a ~12SB pot, effectively less than 1 out. You really need a high chance of everything else going right (PF raiser folding and not capping, passive guy checking through the turn) to make this worth it IMO.

I don't think there's anything wrong with coldcalling here unless I'm overestimating our draw, I'd value it about the same as an OESD in this situation.

[ArturiusX]

Thats what im posting for [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

The problem with my theory is, its making to many predicability assumptions. People behave erratically, and getting capped behind with WORSE hands can happen. The good part is I have a solid draw, so if [censored] hits the fan I can just try and hit my good outs and leave it at that.

Another reason for making this play that is dismissed my 2p2ers a lot but more are starting to realise is making yourself harder to read. What happens when I 3-bet the flop next time vs these two guys when I have a set? They going to believe me? Hell no, these guys are going to use their ego and show me up. Even bad players are still observant in some respects.

[crownjules]

The 3-bet would be good to try and get it HU against Button since UTG probably has the standard range of opening hands, so largely just overcards. My worry, however, is Button. You describe him as loose and fishy. Does that mean he will raise with nothing? How about draws? Unless you answer me yes to both those questions, I'd lay off the raise button.

I'm totally with the unpredictability reasoning in your second paragraph, but, I choose cheaper spots to do this. Donk a turn or two with nothing & you'll get the same effect. You need people to think you're a turd in order to be unpredictable ... you don't have to 3-bet to be a turd [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[ArturiusX]

Loose fish love raising draws, overpairs, TPWK, midpair/draw, even big overs.

He's not passive, if thats what you're getting at.

[thesharpie]

It's not as bad as I thought, for some reason I totally disregarded the equity thing, even though I think we have a slight equity defecit that should be made up for by buying 1 out and possibly getting a free card. We could probably figure this out by calculating the percentage of hands UTG folds to the 3 bet and what ones he caps or calls, and how often the button does check through the turn when it's heads up and how often he does stuff like capping the flop. Maybe there's too many variables and it would take forever to do. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe there's too many variables and it would take forever to do. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

... and it might end up in the +/- 0.1 BB range. I'm betting on the negative range though.

[ArturiusX]

Haha yep. See, its 10/20 so I was going to post it in MHUSH, but I think everyone would say 'hey if you think you can pull it off, go for it', rather then 'what are the odds of this working?'. More faith in that forum I guess [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Instead of going through complex numbers, I'll give you the turn card.

[ArturiusX]

UTG Folds, Button calls (Hell yeah!)

Turn is a 7.

Hero beats himself to a pulp.... and does what?

[crownjules]

[ QUOTE ]
Loose fish love raising draws, overpairs, TPWK, midpair/draw, even big overs.

He's not passive, if thats what you're getting at.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok. I thought a "Fish" was generally loose-passive.

So by your definition, I like the 3-bet. It will hopefully push UTG out and get you HU with a dubious hand that you may have beat. In 3-betting, I think you're obligated to lead the turn regardless of what falls, unless one of the two caps.