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#1
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a hand where I fold TPGK and OESD on the turn
MP is 52/.7/.6 over 271 typical loose passive
CO is 41/18/1.7 over 210, seems decent postflop I just about let the time run out on this one. Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, CO calls. Flop: (10 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, CO calls, Hero calls. Turn: (8 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> Hero checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Hero folds |
#2
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Re: a hand where I fold TPGK and OESD on the turn
At first I thought I would never make this fold. Then I looked at the stats. I guess you're looking at a set or 2 pair from MP, but for you to fold this you would need to put CO on exactly AK.
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#3
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Re: a hand where I fold TPGK and OESD on the turn
Why didn't you 3bet the flop?
CO would have quite likely capped AK here. Why don't you feel that you have at least 6 straight outs on the turn? |
#4
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Re: a hand where I fold TPGK and OESD on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
Why didn't you 3bet the flop? CO would have quite likely capped AK here. Why don't you feel that you have at least 6 straight outs on the turn? [/ QUOTE ] I was convinced I was behind MP on the flop. not everyone caps AK preflop are you discounting 2 straight outs because of the flush or because of the likelihood of splitting? also I believe AK is very possibly in MP's range (maybe not after his flop raise) edit: three reasons to discount my straight outs: split pot (very possible), I'm drawing dead to AK, bd flush (unlikely) |
#5
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Re: a hand where I fold TPGK and OESD on the turn
While not everyone caps AK, a 41/17 player most likely caps AK. MP might actually have AK given his turn check raise, since he didn't seem to fear giving the free card. But MP is a fish so who knows how he thinks.
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#6
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Re: a hand where I fold TPGK and OESD on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
I was convinced I was behind MP on the flop. [/ QUOTE ] I don't understand why? A worse queen is a definite possibility, maybe even a jack. 0.6AF is passive, but not horrendously passive for such a high VPIP. Do you expect him to have 2p or a set here? You appear to be getting an overlay from the guy in the middle drawing to possibly 3 outs as well. [ QUOTE ] not everyone caps AK preflop [/ QUOTE ] True. But I would expect a cap from a 18% pfr, in a pseudo-blind steal/isolation situation, with position, with a very loose donk padding the pot. [ QUOTE ] are you discounting 2 straight outs because of the flush or because of the likelihood of splitting? [/ QUOTE ] The 6 outs was just a ballpark number that I would expect you to have that justifies calling. I'd discount it for both; the BD flush is pretty unlikely and is only a problem 25% of the time when we hit our outs, so I'd knock off less than half an out for it. So if we assume we split 1 time in 3, then that means 30% of the time we have half the effective outs, or 7.5*0.7+(7.5/2)*0.3 which gives us 6.375 outs. It's also true the limper might have AK a certain amount of the time; I don't expect it to be that often after his flop raise. Even for the odd time this happens, FWIW we're still drawing to 3 outs for a split. I think even after the discount for the possibility of AK we can make this call. [ QUOTE ] also I believe AK is very possibly in MP's range (maybe not after his flop raise) [/ QUOTE ] If we believe MP can raise AK on the flop, that's a really good reason to 3-bet. This really contradicts with the statement that you're convinced that you're beat on the flop. |
#7
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Re: a hand where I fold TPGK and OESD on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] also I believe AK is very possibly in MP's range (maybe not after his flop raise) [/ QUOTE ] If we believe MP can raise AK on the flop, that's a really good reason to 3-bet. This really contradicts with the statement that you're convinced that you're beat on the flop. [/ QUOTE ] yeah I wish I could take that one back. edit: not ignoring your math, taking a closer look |
#8
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Re: a hand where I fold TPGK and OESD on the turn
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you have at least 8 straight outs on the turn 6 to the nuts. [/ QUOTE ] fyp. 6 outs to the nuts or 8. Getting 15:2 on the call if I count correctly. Folding is icky. The only problem is if it gets capped. If it is capped your odds are more like 18:3. I also think a split pot is the least of your concerns here. |
#9
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Re: a hand where I fold TPGK and OESD on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] you have at least 8 straight outs on the turn 3 to the nuts. [/ QUOTE ] fyp. [/ QUOTE ] fyfyp edit: also assume I call here, river bricks and it checks to CO who bets. can you actually fold there getting like 18-1? if not you need to consider effective odds edit2: i'm still not convinced whether call or fold is correct, just arguing both sides until it is clear |
#10
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Re: a hand where I fold TPGK and OESD on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] you have at least 8 straight outs on the turn 3 to the nuts. [/ QUOTE ] fyp. [/ QUOTE ] fyfyp edit: also assume I call here, river bricks and it checks to CO who bets. can you actually fold there getting like 18-1? if not you need to consider effective odds edit2: i'm still not convinced whether call or fold is correct, just arguing both sides until it is clear [/ QUOTE ] After thinking abount this for a bit and rereading the hand. You definately have less valuable outs then I was counting. I missed the AK posibility where you have 3 outs to a split. AK does not look likely but the possibility does discount your outs. If you think that turn is going to get capped it looks like a very solid fold. If you KNOW you can get there for 2 bets if you smooth call I would be tempted. This hand looks very close. |
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