What the...?

[Ed Miller]

You're really that in love with this situation?

You have the best possible hand preflop (by far) in the best possible position (by far). Not only that, but you have several unsuspecting suckers willing to pay even money with you, hoping that their (significantly) inferior holdings will prevail after all the cards are out. What on earth are you so afraid of?

[Ed Miller]

AA has a 85.3% chance of prevailing over one random hand. AA has a 63.9% chance of prevailing over three random hands. AA has a 31.1% chance of prevailing over nine random hands. (source: http://www.gocee.com/poker/HE_Value.htm)

In a headsup, 4-bet pot, you have 85.3% equity of an 9.5 SB pot (assuming dead blind money) or 8.1 SB of equity on a 4 SB investment, netting 4.1 SB of profit.

In a 4-handed, 4-bet pot, you have 63.9% equity of a 16 SB pot (lets assume that both blinds are two of your opponents) or 10.22 SB of equity on a 4 SB investment, netting 6.22 SB of profit. You make about 50% more money with three opponents than you do with one.

In a 10-handed, 4-bet pot, you have 31.1% equity of a 40 SB pot or 12.44 SB of equity on a 4 SB investment, netting 8.44 SB of profit. You make more than twice the money in a capped family pot than you do headsup. Encourage those suckers to call!

[CrackerZack]

AA has a 63.9% chance of prevailing over three random hands

I actually am very surprised its that high. I'll be a little more confident in multiway pots now. Thanks for the correction. I'm not thinking back as to when I may have been able to do something differently and maybe missed a bet or two. Maybe its the losing with Aces feeling that I hate that distorted my vision. Anyway, thanks again for the info and I'll go back and read up on big pocket pairs again.

MK, I was re-reading the thread and I apologize if I came off confrontational. It wasn't intended but after re-reading I can see how it can easily sound that way.

[Nottom]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
(especially because if he had raised, hopefully you would have just folded preflop).

[/ QUOTE ]

Your kidding about folding preflop here ... right?

[Nottom]

And the flop to come AKQ (AQ suited) Turn: 9 River: 9 (suited with the flop) ... I think you should see some nice action with that.

[Ed Miller]

Be aware that these are "random" hands... and the hands your opponents play will not be random (though often they aren't too far from random [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]). So you should recognize that your situation may not be quite this rosey in reality. But, I think the assumption of random hands is perfectly fine to make here because there is a huge difference in the EV of each situation. Even if your EV is cut slightly by non-randomness, it isn't going to be cut enough to make your hand unprofitable.

One thing that should be mentioned is that AA is really in a class by itself as a starting holdem hand. It is so much better than any other hand... including KK... that it really should be treated separately (for example, AA wins 31.1% against 9 random hands, but KK prevails only 26.1%, and QQ only 22.2%... a huge difference). The way you view the situation is much more appropriate for a hand like QQ (though I would still raise preflop with QQ there as well). Having AA on the button with several limpers in is truly like printing money... your preflop expectation in just that one situation will often be as much as all the expectation that you generate for every other decision you make at the poker table for the next hour. Forgoing that opportunity to make a deceptive play is just plain dumb.

MK, I was re-reading the thread and I apologize if I came off confrontational. It wasn't intended but after re-reading I can see how it can easily sound that way.

Hehe.. don't sweat it, man... the point of this forum is to be confrontational... and then learn from the confrontation. [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

[Ed Miller]

Your kidding about folding preflop here ... right?

Ummm.. no, I wasn't kidding. To be clear, I'm talking about our hero in the SB with QJo now... if AA on the button had raised preflop, then I think that QJo in the SB should fold.

[Bob T.]

Whenever I see this action, call a flop bet, and then a reraise when it comes back to the player, I strongly suspect that the reraiser has a set. Because it wasn't raised preflop, I am going to lean toward a set of sevens. If that is accurate, you are drawing dead on the turn. I would muck then, and would strongly consider mucking on the flop. The very least that I would expect to see is top two pair, but if your opponent had this at the showdown, I would consider this a mistake on their part, because they would be allowing a lot of players draw too cheaply against their moderately fragile hand.

[Bob T.]

I think his play is terrible. The pot was already multiway when it got to him, and he allowed alot of players a chance to outdraw him cheaply. I think that this player probably overvalues his big pocket pairs, and whines a lot when he gets outdrawn. The way that he played it makes it much more likely that someone would be around after the turn to call him down with two pair.

[Bob T.]

You would be out of position with an easily dominated hand and you have the choice to invest 3/4 of a big bet or not. Fold, and if it will bother you, don't watch the flop.