HOH II Hand Discussion

[locutus2002]

You may be right. I can't read anyone that closely though.

In my tight range AA-JJ, AK.

AA-3 ways
KK-3 ways
QQ-JJ 12 2ways
AK 9 ways

You don't win the 30% of the time an A or K comes up.

And you have to call ATF because villain has AK 33% of the time and you have 6 outs 40% of the time.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
You may be right. I can't read anyone that closely though.

In my tight range AA-JJ, AK.

AA-3 ways
KK-3 ways
QQ-JJ 12 2ways
AK 9 ways

You don't win the 30% of the time an A or K comes up.

And you have to call ATF because villain has AK 33% of the time and you have 6 outs 40% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

With a range that tight, I fold. I was speaking directly to Harrington's assumption that we're up against a pocket pair of QQ or lower.

And we do not have odds to chase our 6-outer postflop. If we did, then just going all-in preflop would be best.

Pot size after our flop call is $10,900. Villain puts us in for $6,200 more. We need to call $6,200 to potentially make $17,100, but because we are a 3:1 dog when we miss postflop, we fold.

No one has suggested this, so I will (I was kinda waiting) -- the assumption that we're up against a pocket pair QQ or lower was an assumption made to simplify matters for odds (i.e., we're a 1.3:1 dog). This is a mix of the facts that we're probably up against a smaller pocket 75% of the time, but 12.5% of the time we're up against AA or KK (which crush us), and 12.5% of the time we're up against AK or AQ or KQ or whatever (which we either tie with or dominate).

If we were 100% sure that we were up against a pocket pair of any size, then my line is clearly +EV, and I think that not considering it is a flaw. Because of the mix-of-hands issue, though, the answer might be a little different.

But I think that completely ruling out calling with AK preflop -- just flat-out stating that it's bad to do against this short-stack -- is just plain wrong. Fact is that this short-stack isn't so short that calling is necessarily bad. It's not bad to call against the guy with $16,200, maybe it's not bad to call against the guy with $11,200 either.

[blackaces13]

In fact, here is a post that I made before I even read this thread because I noticed the same thing about this hand. Lloyd said my post would be better off in this thread than in a new one so here it is:

On p. 234 Harrington talks of getting your 1200 open raise re-raised to 5000 by the cutoff who only has 6200 chips left after his re-raise. Harrington also says, "He will usually put you all in after the flop, and since you know that, you need to make your decision now whether or not to play the hand for his full stack."

Then it works out that you're getting 1.33:1 which is about a fair price against a small pair which we are fairly confident is what we're up against (AA/KK and unpaired hands cancel each other out).

Harrington says to fold this hand but to CALL if the re-raiser had 11,200 left after his raise as opposed to the 6200 he has in the original problem. I cannot see how this can be. How can a call be wrong against a player who will almost certainly go all in on the flop and be correct against a player much less likely to do so and pay you off when an A or a K flops?

To call in either situation we are getting almost 2:1 to call with AK v. a suspected underpair. Harrington says to call in the second example because we "probably" have implied odds. "Your opponent might decide he's done with the hand if an A or a K flops, but then again he might not". Compare this with the statement I quoted in the first paragraph of the short stack almost certainly going all in on any flop since he's pot committed and it seems pretty clear that we are getting BETTER implied odds by calling a small stack.

I don't see how folding AK is right v. a pot committed small stack and calling is right agasint a larger stack who is not committed. The implied odds used to justify the call in the second example are even stronger in the first example and the pot odds are exactly the same.

[Flopzilla]

This is a B&M tourney? If so, I think it is a little more read dependant. Tight player I definately fold, looser player I push, and stop & go only if I think he can lay down his hand.

If I were villian and had AA-KK dealt I would play the hand the same way as villian. If I had mid pairs or overs I would prolly push preflop.