How insane is thiking about folding AQo for 2 more bets pre-flop here?

[Tommy Angelo]

"Honestly, I'm surprised a couple of good players in this thread have advocated folding here, ... I'm also genuinely surprised Tommy calls in this spot."

Hmmm. :-)

[Nigel]

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"Honestly, I'm surprised a couple of good players in this thread have advocated folding here, ... I'm also genuinely surprised Tommy calls in this spot."

Hmmm. :-)

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Ok, when you put it like that, it comes out very wrong, lol. Sorry Tommy, wasn't implying anything there... not my intention. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Nigel

[twankerr]

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I fold AQ for 2 bets to an EP raiser all the time

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There aren't 39 bagillion bets in the pot already

[andyfox]

It might be reasonable or not; my point is that there is probably more of it (capping with A-K from the small blind) in my game than in more passive environments where the blinds are more likely to just call a 3-bet with A-K.

[ike]

If you lose money with AQo over any meaningfully large sample, you're f'ing up. Bad.

[Net Warrior]

You're getting 7-1 on the call, assuming bu comes along. If you play this hand 8 times and you're up against AK as many as 4 times, you still figure to drag the pot 1 of the remaining 4 times to break even. Without reads, I'd guesstimate there's at least 1 LAG involved here. So I think you do better than breaking even in the long run.

[illguitar]

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You're getting 7-1 on the call, assuming bu comes along. If you play this hand 8 times and you're up against AK as many as 4 times, you still figure to drag the pot 1 of the remaining 4 times to break even. Without reads, I'd guesstimate there's at least 1 LAG involved here. So I think you do better than breaking even in the long run.

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I think that this is a great point. When I first read this, I thought you definitely weren't crazy for thinking of folding. In fact, you're not even crazy for folding, but in my opinion you will win this pot more than 1/8 times making it profitable for you to continue. (Although it might only be 1.1-1.3/8). However, there is one stipulation to this. If the flop comes Q high or A high can you stand to call a raise? (Yes, I know that this is situationally dependent.) If not, then you won't win 1/8 making this a fold. The answer to this has more to do with your style than anything else. I don't think any of us can tell you what you should have done, personally...I call. If you fold AND it fits your style, good. Think about it this way. Were you more comfortable folding or calling? What about when the ace flopped? Did you want your hand back before there was action? My guess is that you are more comfortable staying away from extremely marginal situations. Something that I myself should be more comfortable with.

Ps- After running some 4 handed simulations you should probably call if you think that it is likely one or two pocket pairs plus one AK or AQ and one suited broadway. BUT the highest percentage that can be expected is only 24%, while you could be as dominated as dead. AA and QQ. If either AA or QQ is out. You're almost done before you start.

SO- to make a short post long, I would've called but I think the correct play for most people (including myself) is to fold.

[ike]

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Quote:
You're getting 7-1 on the call, assuming bu comes along. If you play this hand 8 times and you're up against AK as many as 4 times, you still figure to drag the pot 1 of the remaining 4 times to break even. Without reads, I'd guesstimate there's at least 1 LAG involved here. So I think you do better than breaking even in the long run.



I think that this is a great point.

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It isn't. You've got 3 more streets to play, whether or not you win 1/8 times doesn't matter. It matters whether or not you show a profit. You almost certainly do win more than 1/8 but you may have to put in a lot of bets when behind while winning relatively smaller pots when you're ahead. When evaluating pretty much all preflop decisions, pot odds are insufficient to make an informed choice. You must consider implied, and in this case reverse implied, odds as well. I actually agree that its a call but the above analysis is no good.

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The answer to this has more to do with your style than anything else. I don't think any of us can tell you what you should have done, personally...I call. If you fold AND it fits your style, good.

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I've seen several mentions of style lately on these boards. I hate style. Its such a cop out. Sure, when its really close and you don't have enough time to think just go with the play you're comfortable with, but when discussing hands on the forum style is irrelevant. The only time the right play for you is different from the right play for me is when one of us is more likely to screw up later in the hand or when our image will cause opponents to play differently against us. There is a real expected value associated with each decision you can make in a poker hand, your job is to pick the one that maximizes it. This calculation can often be hard or even impossible to do with any accuracy, but at no point does style enter into it.

Sorry if I came off as rude, nothing personal.

[pandared]

why is this a bad fold? u r dominated by aces, kings, queens, and a-k, things that people likely play by capping preflop, so I thought it was a pretty good fold, yea the result was that you would have hit one of your three outs against the kings, but that's just three outs...

If on the flop someone bets with the ace on board, it's very hard to gauge where you are at, calling it down and finding yourself outkicked by a-k often result to make you lose alot of money

[Net Warrior]

You wrote "When evaluating pretty much all preflop decisions, pot odds are insufficient to make an informed choice. You must consider implied, and in this case reverse implied, odds as well."

This is an excellent point.

You wrote: "I actually agree that its a call but the above analysis is no good."

I'd like to hear your take on why the call is profitable if reverse implied odds would be so damaging here.