AT in the BB faced with a push from the SB

[Double Eagle]

This hand occured in last nights 11r on Stars. 14 players remain, I am 7th in chips. Blinds are moving to 20k/40k on the next hand. This is the very first hand I've played at this table, having been table balanced here ater an hour at my previous one.

Who is calling here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30000 (7 handed) converter

Button (t910597)
SB (t333212)
Hero (t413786)
UTG (t188160)
MP1 (t210550)
MP2 (t620909)
CO (t820608)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t331712</font>, Hero ?????

[ZootMurph]

With no information, I'd fold. You're in good shape and there is no reason to jeopardize 3/4 of your chips on an unknown.

However, when a tournament gets down to the last 3-4 tables, I generally watch all four tables so I can begin to get an idea of how others play... thereby being prepared for situations like this as well as being prepared for the final table.

[colson10]

Looks like an easy call to me. I think you're well ahead of his range. It's very unlikely that he has a big pair, and more likely he has a small or medium ace than a big one.

Most players range is going to be very wide here. Aggressive players do this with medium offsuit connectors.

There's no prize jump for another 5 players, you're only going to have 10 blinds next hand, and since it's more likely IMO that you have him dominated than he has you, I'm calling.

colson10

[young nut]

I seem to be put in similar situations as these when I get down to the last 2 tables.

The strategy I like to use is to play pretty tight and pick the best spots I can. I do not like to call all ins with marginal hands that could possibly be slightly +ev.

When you get so close to the big money, I think it pays off more to wait for very strong hands to get all in with, or for 3/4 of your stack. It is true you might have a slight edge on this hand, but I would rather let this one go and pick up the blinds later in the orbit to compensate.

[mlagoo]

I would fold here simply because you are in such good chip position, you have no read on the player, and you have the ability to wait for a better spot. For all you know this is the first hand the guy has played in 6 orbits and he's a total rock.

I think I might wait a while on my fold, even use my time bank, just to make him sweat a bit and not encourage him to steal my blinds. I don't know how well this works online, but sometimes I do it when it's down to the final 4-5 tables and less.

edit: one thing I failed to notice is that the blinds were about to move up. that makes me lean slightly more towards a call, but I THINK I still fold here. It's close.

[Schaefer]

Seems like a very easy call unless SB is the ultimate weak-tight and has been giving you a walk on your BB a lot. You need to accumulate chips and you can't pass up such a clear +EV spot. All the money is at the final table and you lose a great chance at having a stack by folding here.

Schaefer

[Lloyd]

This is clearly +CEV. You are a favorite over the WIDE range of hands he could be pushing with and might possibly have him dominated with Ax. The question is whether or not this is +$EV.

The prize structure is:

1: $4,673
2: $2,878
3: $1,962
4: $1,308
5: $1,028
6: $841
7: $654
8: $486
9: $318
10-18: $206

Everybody has $206 locked up so you're just playing for the increase over that.

I forget if the stacks are listed before or after the blinds have been posted. I'm going to assume it's before. I'm also assuming around 2,500,000 total chips in play.

If you fold, you have 373,786 (15%).
If you call and win, you have 746,998 (30%).
If you call and lose, you have 80,574 (3%).

Let's just say that your expected percentage of the prize pool equals the % of total chips you have. There's no perfect method for doing +$EV calculations and this is one way.

There is $12,294 that you're playing for (after you already get the 10-18 prize money).

If you fold, 15% of the prize pool is $1,844. If you win, it's $3,688. If you lose, $369. Again, it's not perfect. If you lose you'll be in serious trouble and have to hope somebody busts out for you to move up. My guess is that if you lose you're $ share is less than $369 but let's just go with that for now.

Let's put him on a range of hands: Any pair, any ace, any king, Q8 or higher, suited connectors down to 87. Whatever. Against that range, you're a 59/41 favorite.

$3,688 * 59% equals $2,176
$369 * 41% equals $151
Total calling equals $2,327

$2,327 (calling) is greater than $1,844 (folding). Even if we say you will get knocked out before moving up in the money if you fold, the expectation is still higher by calling.

So, you call.

[Double Eagle]

Not sure how this changes the calcs, but the payouts were:

1. 10550
2. 5908
3. 3798
4. 2743
5. 2236
6. 1814
7. 1392
8. 970
9. 633
10+ 379

And there were ~6.5M chips in play.

[burningyen]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's put him on a range of hands...

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the problem I always have with this kind of scenario online. Just out of curiosity, can you do a calculation as to what range of hands the SB would have to have in order for calling and folding to have the same EV?

[Lloyd]

I must have pulled the wrong tourney. Wow, 6.5M in chips. Anyway . . . (and you could certainly do this yourself as well!!!)

If you fold, you have 373,786 (5.8%)
If you call and win, you have 746,998 (11.5%)
If you call and lose, you have 80,574 (1.2%)

If you fold, 5.8% times $26,633 equals $1,544
If you call and win, it's $3,062

So ignoring the possibility of moving up in pay if you call and lose, it's still very much +$EV.