is this the easiest situation to fold AA?

lighterjobs · #1 12-24-2005, 05:35 PM

this is the first orbit of this table and i have no stats on any of the players who are in this hand. the big blind in this hand raised the first hand i was at the table when i was in the bb with AQ. i flopped a Q and he just called my flop raise and called me down with AA.

i think this is a pretty easy fold but my main question is whether or not this is a flop spew. i don't think i can just call the flop and i didn't really see a fold being reasonable. i was thinking my only option was a raise.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 6 folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, BB folds, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, SB calls, Hero folds.

Nick Royale · #2 12-24-2005, 05:50 PM

Bet the turn. This 7 isn't as scary as it seems. Will SB bet the flop holding an one card oesd with 3 to a flush on the board? Probably not. Will Button call with a one card oesd with 3 cards to a flush on the board getting 11:2 (5.5:1)? He shouldn't, but he could.

Point being you're more likely to be up against a pair of jacks and a flushdraw. When you raise the flop it should certainly not be with the intention to check/fold a 7 on the turn. Bet, if someone has a T you'll get to know and will be able to fold cheap. This way you'll get bluffed by single pairs such as a J or make an incorrect laydown against hands such as 2-pair.

#3 12-24-2005, 05:55 PM

A 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the turn would have been an easier fold.

#4 12-24-2005, 07:01 PM

We have to keep in mind that it is the button putting in the bet on teh turn and not the small blind leading again. Therefore, I think its safe to assume that SB is probably on a pair with a high flush draw, and the button has a made hand. I think a fold here is correct. Especially with no reads on the button and small blind.

The flop action to me seems fine.

I could see an argument for betting the turn and folding if raised. However, I think check folding here is probably a the correct alternative, however, weak of a play it may be.

#5 12-24-2005, 09:06 PM

Grunch

I think that a fold might be premature. A bet or a check raise should actually give you some good information.

If he comes over the top of you, then I'd say fold, but if he simply calls, I think you have a good shot at taking down this pot.

Nick Royale · #6 12-24-2005, 11:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
We have to keep in mind that it is the button putting in the bet on teh turn and not the small blind leading again. Therefore, I think its safe to assume that SB is probably on a pair with a high flush draw, and the button has a made hand. I think a fold here is correct. Especially with no reads on the button and small blind.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think we can assume Button has us beat just because he's betting when checked to. He could think his value betting a J or make a bluff since both players checked. Folding would be wrong even if we knew he has 2-pair, since we'll have the odds to draw. We can't be sure he's on a set or flush here. Absolutely not.

#7 12-25-2005, 12:46 AM

What are we even drawing too? Even if we spike an Ace, one of our Ace outs isn't a clean out to being with. So we are drawing to one Ace? Which will give us a hand that still probably isn't good in this spot?

The hands that beat us far outnumber the hands that we beat at this point considering the board, and even if we improve our hand, we still may not be good and one of our outs isnt clean.

I dont understand how you can stay in this pot? I think this is a time when u just have to fold your overpair? I could understand betting the turn and folding if raised, but as weak as it is, check folding seems to be the best play here.

#8 12-25-2005, 02:49 AM

A fold isn't right in this situation. You definately should have bet the turn or if anything check-raised. Now if a diamond came on the turn then it would be correct to fold.

Nick Royale · #9 12-25-2005, 06:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What are we even drawing too? Even if we spike an Ace, one of our Ace outs isn't a clean out to being with. So we are drawing to one Ace? Which will give us a hand that still probably isn't good in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]
For example, let's say button has J9, let's also assume SB has A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and obviously won't fold. This is a scenario far worse than average, we're up against a hand that beats our and a strong draw. Still we have outs to call. We have one A out, 3 8s and 2 7s for a total of 6 outs. Getting 9:1 from the pot this is a VERY easy call. So basically we need to know we're up against a set, flush or straight to fold this turn. How can we possibly know that after playing our hand this weak? And as I've explained in a previous post it's not very likely one of them has a T.

We should fold if the turn brings a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], but we can absolutely not check/fold a 7 on the turn.

elindauer · #10 12-25-2005, 10:23 AM

I don't see any problem with just calling the flop. The turn card is going to have a big impact on your equity, and if you are fortunate enough to get a turn card you like, you're much happier putting in 2 BB with 1 card to come then putting in 2 SB with 2 cards to come.

-Eric