I was wrong, you were right, but that's why i joined 2+2, 80K hands...

Hey les,

What do you think those edges are in live play as opposed to online play?

[Leaky Eye]

You left off a sentence in your quote, and butchered the meaning of my post.

[Dazarath]

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If you know how to analyze a hand and the right plays in the right spot and can back your plays up with solid reasoning, it's not that hard. It just takes effort to get to that point.

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My point is that everyone thinks they can analyze plays correctly.

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Most likely the WSOP fish can't really give you an in depth reason as to why they played a certain hand a certain way when pressed for a reason beyond his own ego and his thinking that he can just simply outplay everyone. This is why many times you can tell a persons skill level just by talking to them about playing without even seeing them play a hand.

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I agree that a lot of the time, I can talk to someone about poker (or watch them play), and I can tell that they cannot be a winning player. Usually glaring mistakes in their play, or their approach to the game make it so they just cannot win in the long run.

What about examining one's own play? Ok, like for myself. I don't have the years of experience that a lot of the players on this forum have. I've only been playing for a little over 2 years, and only "seriously" for less than a year. I don't have enough hands under my belt to draw any real conclusions. I don't find it quite as easy as many suggest to just "know" I'm a winning player. This is why I don't claim to be one, and I just try to work on my game. Being relatively new to the game, it's sometimes hard for me to deal with downswings, as it makes me believe that maybe I was just running hot for the last X hands.

Or here's another situation. When I was at home for the summer, I played at Bay 101 since I couldn't play online. I ran at 2 BB/hr over ~50 hours. With such a small sample size and a probably over-inflated winrate, I can't actually determine that I'm better than the opposition. Sure, while watching them, I notice a lot of preflop mistakes (ie. calling raises cold with any two cards T+ and never folding blinds because of the "discount"), but I also know that I make postflop mistakes some of the regulars there don't make. Does my preflop advantage outweigh the occasional postflop mistake enough that I will win in the long run? I can't tell.

Many people have lost small fortunes to finally realize they are not ready for a certain limit, all you lost is time, so I think you should still feel fortunate. Just keep studying the game and thinking about the game when youre away from the tables, and keep posting and reading on 2+2, and sooner or later things will turn around.

[bernie]

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Being relatively new to the game, it's sometimes hard for me to deal with downswings, as it makes me believe that maybe I was just running hot for the last X hands.


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Dealing with downswings will come with experience in playing through the swings. That's what seperates the good players from the bad. It's one thing to read about them, but another to actually experience them.

Imo, the best way to get better is to get involved on the forum and hash out your game. It seems like you're doing that so that alone puts you well ahead of most opponents you'll face on the tables

You break the streak down into hand for hand as much as you can. Look back at how you played the hands. If you do this regularly, the fact you are on a streak, up or down, will be secondary. Many of us analyze a hand in our mind as soon as it's over. Sometimes it's just a quick thought, other times we may ponder it for a few hands. Even the ones we're not directly involved in after we've folded. Those can be the easiest hands to analyze while on the table as your mind is generally clearer when just watching.

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With such a small sample size and a probably over-inflated winrate, I can't actually determine that I'm better than the opposition. Sure, while watching them, I notice a lot of preflop mistakes (ie. calling raises cold with any two cards T+ and never folding blinds because of the "discount"), but I also know that I make postflop mistakes some of the regulars there don't make.

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Like what kind of postflop mistakes are you making? Maybe you're not noticing their postflop mistakes? Hand protection, value betting and chasing long odds are very common mistakes that when compounded over many hands cost lots of chips.

If you know how to break down your expectation of a play against an opponent(s) vs their plays, or plays that they do that you'd do differently and vice versa, that's where you can compare. Remember, the money is made up to the showdown regardless of who gets pushed the pot.

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My point is that everyone thinks they can analyze plays correctly.

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I know. Everyone in a cardroom thinks they are a winning player. Like everyone in prison is innocent. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] That's why I mentioned the brutal honesty with oneself. One way to do that is to really ask oneself why they played a certain hand and look at the reasoning regardless of what the results of the play/hand were.


b

[Dominic]

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....< one small bet after 80K.

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that means you're a winning player, Dude! Congrats!

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Dazarath]

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Like what kind of postflop mistakes are you making? Maybe you're not noticing their postflop mistakes? Hand protection, value betting and chasing long odds are very common mistakes that when compounded over many hands cost lots of chips.

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My problem isn't any of those. My problem is that I like showdown too much. So I end up convincing myself that they "could" be bluffing 1 out of 10 times to justify calling with my obviously beaten hand. Or, I take a check/call line when a bet/fold is called for.

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Imo, the best way to get better is to get involved on the forum and hash out your game.

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I read the forums almost every day, but I don't post too many hands. I try not to post hands that seem boring and standard, and prefer to look for ones that may generate some discussion or that I'm really unsure about. A lot of my hands fall into two categories anyways:
1) I knew how to play correctly and I did play correctly.. or
2) I knew how to play correctly and I [censored] up.
There's not really much point in posting either of these hands.

[bernie]

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I read the forums almost every day, but I don't post too many hands. I try not to post hands that seem boring and standard, and prefer to look for ones that may generate some discussion or that I'm really unsure about. A lot of my hands fall into two categories anyways:
1) I knew how to play correctly and I did play correctly.. or
2) I knew how to play correctly and I [censored] up.
There's not really much point in posting either of these hands.

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Respond to other peoples hands. If you don't agree with someones take on a hand, throw it out there and see how your reasoning compares. Test your thinking.

You will run into alot more concept discussions that way than waiting for yourself to experience it so you can post it.

b