I'm back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI's

[microbet]

If Skip doesn't want you around, I can't do anything about that.

Otherwise, I could bet both of you. If I win, you take me to any restaurant. If you win, I take both of you to something like PF Chang, El Torito, whatever in that ballpark.

[Irieguy]

This is a quote from ZeeJustin taken from my original thread:

[ QUOTE ]
A 25% roi is attainable in the $215's. If you allow some game selection, and only 1 table at a time, I imagine an expert could maintain 35-40% in the longrun

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, everybody is entitled to their opinion... so that's cool. But I will not take somebody seriously who says that you can maintain a 40% ROI in the $215s over the longrun. Particularly since I spoke with Gigabet and Hoyt Corkins at the WSOP this year about this topic and I know what their results have been over a very large sample. I would consider them experts, too.

Once somebody tells me that they believe in ghosts, or have mindreading powers, I stop making proposition bets with them because I have found that crazy people don't pay up. I booked a side bet with a crazy person for the STTF-HUC and he didn't pay either.

Similarly, if somebody said that they would increase their ROI by 4-5% if they could take 5 chips from everybody at the beginning of a SNG... they would lose credibility in my eyes.

These are just my opinions. I'm here for the fun of it.

Irieguy

[Newt_Buggs]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess i suck then [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Anyways, I believe that if you are actually good at the early and mid game, which I am not, you could easily get 12% roi. The problem is that I learned to be a rock in the early levels so now I am going back and trying to learn it. So far, since I havent been a total rock, i have had 13% roi. I hope I can keep it up so I can consider myself "good" too. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
I definitly wouldn't go out and say that 12% is anywhere near "easy" for a good, well rounded player.

[Oluwafemi]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a quote from ZeeJustin taken from my original thread:

[ QUOTE ]
A 25% roi is attainable in the $215's. If you allow some game selection, and only 1 table at a time, I imagine an expert could maintain 35-40% in the longrun

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, everybody is entitled to their opinion... so that's cool. But I will not take somebody seriously who says that you can maintain a 40% ROI in the $215s over the longrun. Particularly since I spoke with Gigabet and Hoyt Corkins at the WSOP this year about this topic and I know what their results have been over a very large sample. I would consider them experts, too.

Once somebody tells me that they believe in ghosts, or have mindreading powers, I stop making proposition bets with them because I have found that crazy people don't pay up. I booked a side bet with a crazy person for the STTF-HUC and he didn't pay either.

Similarly, if somebody said that they would increase their ROI by 4-5% if they could take 5 chips from everybody at the beginning of a SNG... they would lose credibility in my eyes.

These are just my opinions. I'm here for the fun of it.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

since you say you consider Giga and Hoyt Corkins experts and you know what their results are over a very large sample, did knowing that info contradict your own personal opinion? in other words, are their long term results higher than what a feel a good player could average [ROI] over the same sample?

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]


since you say you consider Giga and Hoyt Corkins experts and you know what their results are over a very large sample, did knowing that info contradict your own personal opinion?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[ QUOTE ]
in other words, are their long term results higher than what a feel a good player could average [ROI] over the same sample?

[/ QUOTE ]

Their long term results are much higher than what a good player could average. If I were forced to play the silly game of naming the best SNGers in the world, they would both make my list.

In my signing-off thread, I was commenting on what great players who multi-tabled could achieve in my opinion. I wasn't talking about world-class players.

The rift in skill between the few best players in the world and the many "great" players is huge. And the difference between what some people think is sustainable and what world-class players actually sustain is equally huge.

One of the most enjoyable aspects of this year's WSOP was getting to talk to several world-class players about what they thought about SNGs. I personally talked to, or participated in conversations at the table, the Full Tilt hospitality suite, and in the halls with TJ, Danny N., Mike M., Hoyt, Gig, and a handful of others.

Nobody said anything that would make me believe that you could sustain an ROI of more than 10-15% at the highest level SNGs. And that's world-class players, one at a time.

A great player who multi-tables could expect around 6% over the very long term. In my opinion. This opinion is consistent with everything I've witnessed, and with every conversation I've had about poker with respectable world-class players over the past several years.

I understand that this opinion will contradict the results of a few players who disagree. That should be easy to explain.

Irieguy

[curtains]

I also don't believe that a 40% ROI is possible and Im also not that confident about the 4-5% roi increase from taking the 5 chips.

However as the chips that you take are about .5% of the prize pool, they should theoretically be worth $9 in real money. I would expect that this would be worth at LEAST 2% points in ROI (a signifigant amount in itself), which is less than HALF of the chips theoretical value. I don't know exactly how much these chips are worth, but they are worth something that should be at least close to their actual value in terms of % of the prize pool/chips in play.

[The Yugoslavian]

Irie,

Have you considered the possibility that these so-called 'world-class' players are just really, really stupid?

Also, have you considered the possiblity that you're just really, really stupid?

Where is freemoney to set you straight? [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

Yugoslav

[Oluwafemi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


since you say you consider Giga and Hoyt Corkins experts and you know what their results are over a very large sample, did knowing that info contradict your own personal opinion?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[ QUOTE ]
in other words, are their long term results higher than what a feel a good player could average [ROI] over the same sample?

[/ QUOTE ]

Their long term results are much higher than what a good player could average. If I were forced to play the silly game of naming the best SNGers in the world, they would both make my list.

In my signing-off thread, I was commenting on what great players who multi-tabled could achieve in my opinion. I wasn't talking about world-class players.

The rift in skill between the few best players in the world and the many "great" players is huge. And the difference between what some people think is sustainable and what world-class players actually sustain is equally huge.

One of the most enjoyable aspects of this year's WSOP was getting to talk to several world-class players about what they thought about SNGs. I personally talked to, or participated in conversations at the table, the Full Tilt hospitality suite, and in the halls with TJ, Danny N., Mike M., Hoyt, Gig, and a handful of others.

Nobody said anything that would make me believe that you could sustain an ROI of more than 10-15% at the highest level SNGs. And that's world-class players, one at a time.

A great player who multi-tables could expect around 6% over the very long term. In my opinion. This opinion is consistent with everything I've witnessed, and with every conversation I've had about poker with respectable world-class players over the past several years.

I understand that this opinion will contradict the results of a few players who disagree. That should be easy to explain.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

hell, i didn't even know Hoyt Corkins played Party SNGs. i know there is a player there with his name, i think Hoyt Corkins5 but i've heard it's not him. interesting that you consider Gigabet [ world class ].

[Oluwafemi]

what did you did these world class players have to say about SNGs? i think this is the second or third time i've read you say this but you haven't elaborated. it's great that you got to sit down and have a discussion with these players but what good does it do the forum it you don't share it?

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

interesting that you consider Gigabet [ world class ].

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say it's more interesting that you seem intent on continuously trolling this forum and won't even do it under your original username!!! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I recommend that you go crawling back to your g/f and beg her to let you use her account again so you can have enough good variance to move up to the $11s and leave us all alone...

I'm sure PrayingMantis, et al. would agree with me here.

Yugoslav