Gazes Call with AK after 2 all ins 4 handed

[Vee Quiva]

Has there been any discussion about this hand from the WSOP tonight? I ran a search and could not find any.

Does everyone agree that it was a stupid call?

Granted if he gets lucky and wins the pot, he's got a legitimate chance to win the whole enchilada.

i think this is a definite call barring some extreme circumstances.

[A_Junglen]

I don't see a problem with the call, specifically if your Bill Gazes and your clearly there to win.

I was surprised to see how PO'd Minh seemed about it though.

[Photoc]

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I was surprised to see how PO'd Minh seemed about it though.

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Looks like Mihn has been watching old Helmuth footage on ESPN for some pointers.

[BTirish]

Given how close his stack was to one of the all-in players, I'm not sure I see the reasoning for the call.

You have to figure that at least one of these players has a pocket pair. The most likely holding for a player without a pocket pair is a weaker ace--but if there's a weaker ace out there, then your 3-way equity with AKo goes down.

I guess if he were very sure that the player with the larger stack had pushed in with a weaker ace, then the call would be justified. This depends on how big the disparity between the stacks was, though.

As it was, he ended up with a 3-way coin flip where going out behind both of the other players was a possibility. Justifying the call because it could put him in a position to win the whole thing has to be balanced against this possibility.

edit: I should add that I do not think it is a stupid or really bad call. Nor do I think I am qualified to pass any such judgment. I just see a difference between a 50-50 coinflip and a 3-way race when it's for your tournament life. Kudos to him for being willing to gamble to win--I just don't think it's the obvious best move.

[TimTimSalabim]

I don't think it's a stupid call, at worst it's marginal. He was getting almost 2-1 (the other two stacks were close to each other I believe), plus a chance to knock out two opponents at once and get heads-up. Unless you're certain one of them has AA, I don't think you can lay it down at that stage of a tournament.

[autobet]

close decision: marginal call/marginal fold

[SixgunSam]

I believe Mark Seif had a large chip lead at the time. If Gazes wins the three-way all-in he is around even with Seif and playing heads up for the title. If he folds and Nyugen wins, Gazes is the smallest stack with 2 tough players left. He's getting 2:1 odds with AK and tremendously increasing his odds of winning the tournament with the call. With a fold, he's nearly ensuring a third place finish, but decreasing his odds of taking first. If he is playing for first, I think this is a clear call and a good one.

[Dynasty]

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With a fold, he's nearly ensuring a third place finish, but decreasing his odds of taking first.

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Because he had the largest stack of the three players involved in the pot, he was already ensured third place unless he ran into a situation where his AK was up against QQ and QQ and his two opponents split his stack. One of his two opponents was almost certain to be eliminated on that hand.

So, his choice came down to:

(1) folding and playing on severely short-stacked against Seif and about half the stack of the remaining opponent. That's a bad spot.

(2) Calling with the right pot odds with third place "locked up" and a chance to nearly catch Seif in chips and play him heads-up.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]

You have to figure that at least one of these players has a pocket pair. The most likely holding for a player without a pocket pair is a weaker ace--but if there's a weaker ace out there, then your 3-way equity with AKo goes down.


[/ QUOTE ]

No, it doesn't- at least not significantly.

I don't remember the suits of the cards in the actual hand. But, this should suffice.

Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Kh 496900 36.25 869636 63.44 4218 0.31 0.364
Jc Jd 636192 46.41 730344 53.28 4218 0.31 0.465
Td Th 233444 17.03 1133092 82.66 4218 0.31 0.171


Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Kh 448950 32.75 902682 65.85 19122 1.39 0.334
Jc Jd 628006 45.81 738247 53.86 4501 0.33 0.459
Qd Ah 274676 20.04 1076956 78.57 19122 1.39 0.207

I'm not dismissing an extra 3% equity. But, even when the AQ is substituted for the TT, The AKo hand has 33.4% equity. The proper poker play is to call although it's essentially EV neutral with high variance. So, the decision comes down to what the proper tournament play is. Given the stack sizes, I think it's an easy call.