I'm back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI's

[FatalError]

After taking a few months to work on my cash games due to trips to vegas and other reasons i'm back to 8 tabling, much more heavily bankrolled this time around and playing 200's mainly... I've been giving some thought to irie's signing off post where he posted that he thought 6% was the maximum attainable long term ROI for 200's but i just don't believe this much, i'm running terrible and STILL at 3% over my first 300 8 tabling... 18% 4th place finishes is fun! but anyways... my feeling is at almost any 215 table there are at least 1, usually 2 or 3 players with little to no chance (1-10%) of finishing ITM, with "dead" money like this in the SnG and an assumption that the remaining players are all strategically sound and relatively equal we can derive an expected return over infinity by taking some guesses for the variable amount of dead money

Example 1 - 1 Single Player with NO chance of finishing ITM

9 players share 2000$ which is a 3.4% ROI

Example 2 - 2 Players have a 0% chance of finishing ITM

8 players share 2000$ which is a 16.3% ROI

Example 3 - 3 Players have an 18% chance of finishing ITM each

This is our "practical" example which i think

Each of these players has 120$ of equity in their own buyin

therefore the 7 remaining players share 1640$ worth of the prize pool as equity giving a possible 9% ROI

Now this assumes an even distribution ITM (yours should be weighted towards 1st) and that all the players remaining are of equal caliber, where the average 2+2er is going to be slightly better than other players who might be beating the game for very little

And there it is
now you can see where this is going