River aggression

Griovejas · #1 07-19-2005, 09:00 AM

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (8 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB folds.

River: (8.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

SB is a semi-tight aggressive player, going at a rate of 4BB/100 for 5k hands I have on him.

I've raised and bet right and left, which, with me being tight pre and on flop, is usual when I have hit a big pair. Yet he raised me on river, and did a very correct decision. With 3 overcards on board I find it hard to believe this is profitable play. What do you think? I am 100% sure he had no reads on me, I always take the same amount of time to make decisions (+-1 sec).

Griovejas · #2 07-19-2005, 09:01 AM

forgot the main thing: he flipped over 6d 6h

parappa · #3 07-19-2005, 09:12 AM

The flop is pretty raggy, and against fewer opponents I'd definitely be leading here, but against 4 opponents I'm usually just checking the flop through here and trying to pick up something on the turn.

When the turn comes, they're not calling with draws. Someone has a pair and I don't see much point in betting unless you think they'll fold.

By the river I am absolutely convinced that sb has a pair and am not putting any more money into the pot. Your read is that he's semi-tight-aggressive. There aren't any draws around. He's got some kind of hand and he probably wants to show it down.

It looks like he made a very good read on you. Only the J or the T could realistically have helped you in his mind, and perhaps you're betting UI overcards-he could especially think this if you've been autoleading the flop every time you raise preflop. It looks like you have a table image that indicates that you'd do this without a hand. I would've just check/called your bet, but who knows? Maybe he thought you'd fold a T or that his 66 was good.

It doesn't really fit anywhere else, but that's another reason that I like to check through the flop with my overcards sometimes. It communicates "sometimes I don't make anything, see?" And then I can fire away with my overcards when I'm in a better spot and even unobservant players will notice that.

crownjules · #4 07-19-2005, 09:19 AM

I would a) not be betting that river in the first place and b) DEFINITELY wouldn't call his raise. You're practically throwing money at him on the later of the two since you have nothing but ace high. What do you think he is raising this river with?

f you have reads that he's a bluffer, then you can check/call. Betting out will more often than not just get you called down by hands that beat you. If he will bluff at you with K or Q high then you check and allow him to bet and you call. Without that sort of read, just fold.

Griovejas · #5 07-19-2005, 09:27 AM

What about his perspective? He's not a tricky player, usually doing the routine fit-or-fold way. Yet he raises with pocket 66 on the river against a tight aggressive player who bet/raised on all streets. Unless he has a definitive read on me, it's a -EV play, correct?

parappa · #6 07-19-2005, 09:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What about his perspective? He's not a tricky player, usually doing the routine fit-or-fold way. Yet he raises with pocket 66 on the river against a tight aggressive player who bet/raised on all streets. Unless he has a definitive read on me, it's a -EV play, correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

Think about the hands he can put you on, though:
AK (16 ways)
AQ (16 ways)
KQ (16 ways) = 48 hands he's beating

AJ (12 ways)
AA/KK/QQ=18
JJ/TT=2 = about 32 he's losing to.

Even if he can't put you on KQ, it's still about even. But if you've been speeding around and playing very aggressively, he has to like his chances with any pair. Or, maybe he's seen you make a laydown late in the hand and is trying his luck. Or, maybe he's a dummy.

However, I'd really have to question your read on him as solid-weak-tight after this hand. He's either a better or worse player than you're giving him credit for here.

Griovejas · #7 07-19-2005, 09:42 AM

roughly, he has
21% vpip
11% preflop raise
2.2 aggression factor post flop (oddly, his river AF is larger than turn AF)
4bb/100
w$sd 57%

parappa · #8 07-19-2005, 09:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
roughly, he has
21% vpip
11% preflop raise
2.2 aggression factor post flop (oddly, his river AF is larger than turn AF)
4bb/100
w$sd 57%

[/ QUOTE ]

Over 5k hands? I don't know what to make of it. Either he read you very well or is just a habitual river bluffer.

davelin · #9 07-19-2005, 09:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What about his perspective? He's not a tricky player, usually doing the routine fit-or-fold way. Yet he raises with pocket 66 on the river against a tight aggressive player who bet/raised on all streets. Unless he has a definitive read on me, it's a -EV play, correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently not because he knows you'll pay him off.

tor · #10 07-19-2005, 10:09 AM

Betting that river is only going to get called by someone w/ a pair, or being raised by someone with a good pair. Hands you already beat are going to fold. Best to check and have a low pair, worse hand check behind. More often than not, his calling through the hand and raising the river indicates real strength over ace high.

Fold to the raise, unless you have a really good read on this player that he can get pretty tricky.