Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 12-04-2005, 01:17 AM
LockLow34 LockLow34 is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 27
Default What are the odds of 100 hands no PP?

Just played in a home tourney. I made it to the 8th level. With each round lasting 20 minutes and 6-10 players at the tables at various times I'm figuring I saw about 100 hands or so. Out of those 100 hands I had 7 hands with 2 broadway cards (AK, AQ, AT, KQ, KQs, KJ, QJ) and 0 pocket pairs.

What are the odds of having this bad run? More specifically, what are the odds of going 100 hands without a single pocket pair?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 12-04-2005, 01:21 AM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,636
Default Re: What are the odds of 100 hands no PP?

[ QUOTE ]
Just played in a home tourney. I made it to the 8th level. With each round lasting 20 minutes and 6-10 players at the tables at various times I'm figuring I saw about 100 hands or so. Out of those 100 hands I had 7 hands with 2 broadway cards (AK, AQ, AT, KQ, KQs, KJ, QJ) and 0 pocket pairs.

What are the odds of having this bad run? More specifically, what are the odds of going 100 hands without a single pocket pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

(16/17)^100 =~ 428-to-1.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 12-04-2005, 02:17 PM
TheProdigy TheProdigy is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 6
Default Re: What are the odds of 100 hands no PP?

Bruce, I know this isn't my question, but I was wondering if you could provide any information as to what those numbers mean? Like where do you get the 16/17 and such...thanks a bunch

Trying to learn,
TheProdigy
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 12-04-2005, 02:44 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: What are the odds of 100 hands no PP?

The chance of getting a PP is 1/17, so the chance of not getting a PP is 16/17. The chance of something happening n times in a row is x^n, where x is the probability of the event. The chance of not getting a PP 100 hands in a row is then (16/17)^100.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 12-04-2005, 02:49 PM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,636
Default Re: What are the odds of 100 hands no PP?

[ QUOTE ]
Bruce, I know this isn't my question, but I was wondering if you could provide any information as to what those numbers mean? Like where do you get the 16/17 and such...thanks a bunch

Trying to learn,
TheProdigy

[/ QUOTE ]

The probability of being dealt a pair is 52/52 * 3/51 = 1/17, so 16/17 is the probability of not getting dealt a pair. The probability of not getting a pair 100 times in a row is (16/17)^100.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 12-04-2005, 10:33 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: What are the odds of 100 hands no PP?

If you have trouble understanding where it comes from, stick with the raw numbers:

(Any first card, or 52 out of 52) and (a non-pairing second card, which is 48 cards out of the remaining 51)
(52/52) * (48/51)
.9411765
94.11765%

100 times in a row:
.9411765 * .9411765 * .9411765 * [. . .] * .9411765
.9411765^100
.002329
.2329%
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:11 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.