Slow playing strong TPTK on flop

[Shillx]

Mixing up play is good in these small pots. The best line for me is to call-call-raise. If you randomly raised any street, that would be fine as well. I would wait with a hand like AK or a missed draw like 98 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], so it is tough to play against the river raise with Kx or the missed Ax [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] draw. Waiting for the river is better (small pots only) because...

- You get 3-bet on the river less often from a boss hand
- You win more when he is bluffing
- You lose less when you bluff raise

I should expand on the last point. Say you have the said 98 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and you decide to raise the turn as a semi-bluff. If called, you then bet the river regardless of what comes. So in effect you are risking 2.8 BB to win what is in the middle. Remember that the river card will give you a flush ~20% of the time so you get a discount on all river bluffs. By waiting to bluff-raise the river, you only risk 2.6 BB to win what is out there. This 0.2 BB might not sound like a lot, but it is essentially free money since the reward is the same no matter which street you raise. Add in the times that you get 3-bet on the turn, and waiting becomes by far the best play. The argument "he might fold to the turn raise" isn't valid here because he would have also folded to a river raise and he would have put 1 BB more into the middle by doing so.

So for me, raising the turn doesn't make too much sense against typical players. Against good players who will sometimes give up on the river, it becomes more important to raise earlier in the hand.

Brad

[Yerma]

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Add in the times that you get 3-bet on the turn, and waiting becomes by far the best play. The argument "he might fold to the turn raise" isn't valid here because he would have also folded to a river raise and he would have put 1 BB more into the middle by doing so.

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I have a question for you on this point. And this is only important for the bluff raise with 98s, not the other raise with AK. When I think about this question, the bluff is more powerful on the turn. You are asking the other guy whether he wants to spend 2 more bets when you do it on the turn, rather than one more bet when you do it on the river. But the cost to you is the same (within 0.2BB as you pointed out). And also practically, when you are up against Kx or a medium pocket pair, they dump more often on the turn, but nearly always call the river, right?

This is all another reason that I'd pick a two-tone board to raise the AK on the turn rather than the river. Yes, on the two-tone board you are sometimes though not always missing out on 1BB on the river if you are facing a bluff, but it's too predictable to always wait for the river to raise. Maybe this is a more important detail against a player who is capable of folding a mediocre made hand to a raise.

I suspect this is all worth not trying to squeeze that 1 BB on the river by bluff-raising on the river instead. I wonder if you've worked it out in more detail and I am wrong though?

[Shillx]

The big key to this hand is that the pot is small. As the pot gets bigger, you have to fire raises in on earlier streets. So if the pot were 5 ways for 3 SB to the flop and got HU by the turn (i.e. villian bets-3 folds-you call), you would much rather get the raise in on the turn with top pair. Even if it gives your hand away (you would very rarely semibluff raise this turn), don't [censored] around in a 10 BB pot. You would much rather him fire drawing thin in a 2-3 BB pot then have him fold that same hand. Seeing him fold a hand that is drawing thin isn't nearly as bad in a big pot.

Well the AK ties in with the 98s since you have to play both hands the same way. If you raise the flop with AK and raise the turn with 98s, the villian can exploit you very easily. Not that he will notice, but this isn't the type of player you should strive to be. You should want to put people to tough decisions all the time, but you also want to make plays that help you as well. So while raising the turn with AK and 98s makes you tough to play against, it is probably a little better to raise the river against typical players (it doesn't make you tougher though).

If the guy folds 77 to your semi-bluff turn raise, then he will also fold it when he is drawing to just two outs. So while it is great when he folds to the semi-bluff, there is a downside that you can't just overlook. The types of hands that you should be looking to fold are...

- Stuff like 77 or low pairs on board (never assume Kx is folding)
- Better flush draws
- Hands he is taking stabs with but still beat 9-high

A lot of hands that you are looking to fold either aren't folding before the river or are folding directly after you raise. This is why the river bluff raise is such a good move here. If he has a flush draw (or any good draw), you aren't going to fold him with a turn raise so that is out of the question. If he is taking a stab with QJ or something, then you are better off waiting since he is folding right when you raise and you make more by letting him bet again on the end. You are correct that it makes it tougher for him to play small pairs to a turn raise, but IMO it isn't enough to cover the downsides of the turn raise.

Yes, on the two-tone board you are sometimes though not always missing out on 1BB on the river if you are facing a bluff, but it's too predictable to always wait for the river to raise.

How is this being predictable? You are calling with good hands, good draws (don't always call with a good draw*) and weaker stuff. Calling the flop and turn does everything but give your hand away.

* - You would raise the flop if you had a very good hand so you would also raise the hand with a good draw at times to keep the villian honest.