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#1
11-04-2005, 06:53 PM
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Folded To River Bet (PT, Misc Tab)
Just going over my PT stats (post-split) and everything looks pretty much as it always has as far as vpip, wr, WSD, etc (running slightly better than avg but not overly so)...
I really have a question about my Folded To River Bet though. Over these 33k+ hands my FTRB is a whopping 47.99%. Is this a leak or not necessarily? What is this a symptom of? Basically, I don't know of any significant winner at 10/20 who comes close to this number and I just want to know what I might be doing that is causing me to fold to so many river bets... Also, if there is any point in me posting my complete PT stats over this stretch I can do that... Thanks for any insight, ___1___ 
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#2
11-04-2005, 07:22 PM
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Re: Folded To River Bet (PT, Misc Tab)
[ QUOTE ]
Just going over my PT stats (post-split) and everything looks pretty much as it always has as far as vpip, wr, WSD, etc (running slightly better than avg but not overly so)... I really have a question about my Folded To River Bet though. Over these 33k+ hands my FTRB is a whopping 47.99%. Is this a leak or not necessarily? What is this a symptom of? Basically, I don't know of any significant winner at 10/20 who comes close to this number and I just want to know what I might be doing that is causing me to fold to so many river bets... Also, if there is any point in me posting my complete PT stats over this stretch I can do that... Thanks for any insight, ___1___ [/ QUOTE ] Could be a leak, could be that you're relying on your reads more on the river and it's a +EV move for you. My FRB was 43% at the 5/10 and I was crushing it . . . and to be honest, after my experience with 20/40, the 10/20 now feels like 5/10 did back then. So probably a little high, but I don't think it automatically means anything. Maybe post some hands where you make marginal river folds and see what everyone else thinks . . .
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#3
11-04-2005, 07:33 PM
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Re: Folded To River Bet (PT, Misc Tab)
[ QUOTE ]
Could be a leak, could be that you're relying on your reads more on the river and it's a +EV move for you. My FRB was 43% at the 5/10 and I was crushing it . . . and to be honest, after my experience with 20/40, the 10/20 now feels like 5/10 did back then. So probably a little high, but I don't think it automatically means anything. Maybe post some hands where you make marginal river folds and see what everyone else thinks . . . [/ QUOTE ] That's pretty much what I wanted to hear [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]. Thanks. ___1___
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#4
11-04-2005, 07:43 PM
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Re: Folded To River Bet (PT, Misc Tab)
hey __1__,
I've don't worry about aberrations in my PT stats much anymore, especially as my game becomes more read-based. I would agree with Grisgra that posting some marginal river folds is probably a good idea, but if you are happy with your play don't do anything drastic. Surf
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#6
11-04-2005, 08:00 PM
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Re: Folded To River Bet (PT, Misc Tab)
[ QUOTE ]
I really have a question about my Folded To River Bet though. Over these 33k+ hands my FTRB is a whopping 47.99%. Is this a leak or not necessarily? [/ QUOTE ] I don't think it is necessarily a leak. [ QUOTE ] Also, if there is any point in me posting my complete PT stats over this stretch I can do that... [/ QUOTE ] I don't think there is much point. I doubt your stats will be anything that we all haven't seen before and the analysis you get won't help your game.
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#7
11-05-2005, 04:29 PM
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Re: Folded To River Bet (PT, Misc Tab)
[ QUOTE ]
Also, if there is any point in me posting my complete PT stats over this stretch I can do that... [/ QUOTE ] I would very much like to see your complete PT stats for this stretch. Although I'm sure you know how to play the river, your folded to river bet stat is extraordinarily high compared to most. It is possible that some of your other stats may be able to offer some insight into the reason for this. For instance, particularty your bet/raise/check/fold may indicate somehow that you get into positions more frequently than other players in which folding on the river is correct. It could also be that you are simply better at estimating the likelihood that you are beaten than the rest of us and you are consequently able to fold when we are unsure enough that we have to pay off. I am also curious as to what your folded to river bet has been historically. Cartman
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#8
11-05-2005, 04:44 PM
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Re: Folded To River Bet (PT, Misc Tab)
[ QUOTE ]
i have always suspected this stat takes a very very long time to converge -- I think 33k hands provides a fairly small sample set of you vs river bet. [/ QUOTE ] It would be an interesting project to take a large, datamined PT database and attempt to perform satistical analysis on it to determine how quickly various important stats converge.
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#9
11-05-2005, 05:01 PM
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Re: Folded To River Bet (PT, Misc Tab)
[ QUOTE ]
It could also be that you are simply better at estimating the likelihood that you are beaten than the rest of us and you are consequently able to fold when we are unsure enough that we have to pay off [/ QUOTE ] Honestly, I doubt this is the case. [ QUOTE ] I am also curious as to what your folded to river bet has been historically. [/ QUOTE ] Over the previous 250kish hands its been around 43-45%. Regardless, since it could help I guess, I'll post my complete PT stats for this stretch within the hour. ___1___
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