$.50/1 NL - in retrospect i misplayed this, how would you play it?

[rheaume]

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just fold the flop when a bad player raises and you have overcards. against the range of hands loose, passive players raise there you don't have nearly the odds to draw to overcards and, as with all overcard draws, your implied odds are slim to none.

fim

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good point. thanks for the feedback.

matt

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holy crap i just realized you had the flush draw too.

my previous advice was crap, you need to push this flop pretty much every time here against a normal opponent.

fim

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oh ok. heh, thanks for clarifying.

[rheaume]

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Give her the respect on this hand - try to get her to tell you her cards and (when you realise the garbage she's holding) take her chips over the next hour.

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heh, she split right after this hand.

i'm starting to see a consensus here, fold or push. honestly pushing all in on a rereraise didnt even cross my mind at that moment. a call seemed like the right play for some reason.

i agree with you on the point about fold equity too. she was steaming so hard after that 2pr vs my set of deuces hand that there's no way she's folding TPGK there even IF she thinks i have her beat. i just can't see it.

[amoeba]

I like the all in on the flop here especially if you know she would reraise preflop with AA-QQ.

I'm torn between checkraise all in and bet, raise, allin.

I think I would checkraise all in as my fold equity is higher and also I don't want to bet, have her call, then face a blank turn.

I think I like checkraise all in.

[pzhon]

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You only comfortably have the flush as guaranteed outs.

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They aren't guaranteed, but it is likely that they are good. Other outs are less guaranteed, but there is a significant chance they are good. In fact, there is a chance KQ ui is the best hand. You need to put the villain on a range of hands, and see how your flush draw and two overcards does against hands in that range. Pushing is better than folding against just about everything other than the nut flush draw and KK or better. It is often a lot better than folding.

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Shove is really playng for the flush imo. you're paying 50 to win 80. So that's a fold for me.

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You are overemphasizing one way to win out of many and ignoring the folding equity.

For pushing to be better than folding, you need to win at least 38.0%, or 38.9% including the rake, assuming no folding equity.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1113450
K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.548
A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 0.452 (ace high)

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1113460
K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.535
2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.465 (underpair)

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1113495
K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.528
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 0.472 (bottom pair)

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1113452
K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.541
9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 0.459 (overpair)

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1113454
K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.467
T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.533 (pair + flush draw)

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1113488
K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.455
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 0.545 (top pair)

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1113493
K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.529
A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 0.471 (top pair)

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1113467
K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.366
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 0.634 (high overpair)

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1113469
K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.328
8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 0.672 (top 2)

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1113473
K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.688
T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 0.312 (OESD)

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1113476
K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.652
9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.348 (OESD + flush draw)

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1113484
K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.726
J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.274 (flush draw + overcards + gutshot)

Disasters:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1113463
K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.246
8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.754 (set)

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1113461
K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.179
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.821 (nut flush draw + pair)

There may be a lot of folding equity against ace-high and low pairs that are only slight underdogs against K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. On the other hand, draws like 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] will call, and will be far behind.

A high flush draw and two overcards is a strong hand. It counts as hitting the flop hard. Play it aggressively.

[pzhon]

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i agree with you on the point about fold equity too. she was steaming so hard after that 2pr vs my set of deuces hand that there's no way she's folding TPGK there even IF she thinks i have her beat. i just can't see it.

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In the actual hand, she probably would not have folded TPGK. However, would she fold bottom pair? 22? Ace high? These all win about 45% against you, and a player who has observed that you bet every flop may raise with any of these, and perhaps less.

[rheaume]

wow. thanks a lot for your post. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]