River makes my flush, but also pairs the board

[Kyriefurro]

Only 14 hands on Button, so not much in the way of a read. From what little I've seen, though, he seems pretty aggressive. He's also been bragging about how he's mainly a MTT table and how well he does on those games, which may or may not be significant.

SB seems loose passive and hasn't done anything to catch my attention yet.

Stacks:
Hero - 54.10
Button - 61.33
SB - 6.50

Prima .25/.50 NL 6-max <font color="blue"> (4 players) </font>
Hero is in BB w/ 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Preflop: UTG folds, Button <font color="red"> raises to $1.50 </font>, SB calls, Hero calls

($4.50) Flop <font color="blue"> (3 players) </font>: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks

($4.50) Turn: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB bets $0.50, Hero calls, Button <font color="red"> raises to $3.50 </font>, SB <font color="red"> raises to $5 (all-in) </font>, Hero calls, Button calls

<font color="green"> At this point I'm thinking that either SB or button caught the straight. If I catch my flush, I'm probably good and I have a gutshot to a bigger straight than what's out there, so I have 12 full outs. I'm getting exactly 3:1 to call SB's 3-bet, so a call is justified. </font>

($19.50) River <font color="blue"> (3 players, 1 all-in) </font>: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero bets $15, Button <font color="red"> raises to 54.83 (all-in) </font>, Hero.......?

[lautzutao]

fold. And next time don't call a raise with 87s out of position.

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep.

[ QUOTE ]
And next time don't call a raise with 87s out of position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't be ridiculous. I make this call 100% of the time. Hero is calling two blinds with a nice suited connector and effective stacks &gt; 100 blinds; easy call.

SpaceAce

[mustardo]

Yeh pretty easy fold. Nothing wrong with the preflop call.

[Kyriefurro]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeh pretty easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you explain why?

My own thoughts upon further analysis: While there are several *possible* hands that villain might have that hurt me, most of them seem unlikely given villain's play. AsKs (or other big spades) wouldn't raise on that turn. 33, 44, and JJ are a concern, but 33 and 44 wouldn't raise PF, and it seems likely that any set would have re-raised on the turn, especially since I'd called the original 3-bet. He'd want to isolate the all-in and get me out of the pot in case I was drawing (which I was heh). From villain's play it seems he most likely has a middle PP (99/TT).

Either way, I'm getting 2.5:1 on his all-in bet. I only need to be ahead here 30% of the time to make calling this profitable, and I think that's probably the case.

[mustardo]

The problem is what can he possibly put you on? Are you really going to be bluffing an empty side pot with a missed draw representing a river hand? You've bet out on the second six and the flush and he has said I don't care about either of those possibilities. At best you can hope he has a straight and puts you on three sixes. I don't think you are ahead 30% of the time unless you have a read to tell you that this guy is too stupid to recognise the value of his hands relative to the board and has misplayed his overpair.

As an aside I agree that I would definitely try to avoid this problem by check calling the river.

[lautzutao]

Only reason I don't like calling in this situation is SB's stacksize. If SB decides to make a desperation allin bet on this flop, we're effectively sandwiched inbetween him and a preflop raiser. Even on this flop(which is decent for us) I wouldn't feel comfortable calling SB's bet...knowing that I could be calling a rather large raise from villian

[Rockatansky]

I think the pre-flop call is marginal because the SB is shortstacked, and it doesn't sound like Button is going to let you draw cheaply.

While I think that it's possible that he could have put you on a baby flush and decided to bluff the river, it's not very likely. Against a competent player, I think this river is a check / call. You bet into him after the board paired and the third spade fell. What is he raising that you beat? Maybe A-6 or something like that, but doubtful.

[Kyriefurro]

[ QUOTE ]
Against a competent player, I think this river is a check / call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I like this better than what I did.

I would not be so sure villin didn't raise on the button with 33 or 44. In a short handed game and an unraised pot I might. Also, in my experience, a big raise on the river like this usually means a bigger hand than u have, either the nut flush or full house.