A useless & somewhat insane hypothetical

[raptor517]

see you messed up ilya, you said he will SOMETIMES fold to a bet on the flop. that makes it impossible for anyone to decide what the perfect amount is, and if the play would be better than pushing. without that information, pushing is clearly the best play. holla

[splashpot]

I change my mind. Bet every chip except one. Assuming the condition that he will ALWAYS fold on the flop without a set or better. Then bet that one on the flop when his set doesn't hit so he doesn't get to see the turn or river.

[raptor517]

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I change my mind. Bet every chip except one. Assuming the condition that he will ALWAYS fold on the flop without a set or better. Then bet that one on the flop when his set doesn't hit so he doesn't get to see the turn or river.

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3, he will SOMETIMES fold to a bet on the flop (depending on pot size)

follow the rules [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

holla

[splashpot]

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I change my mind. Bet every chip except one. Assuming the condition that he will ALWAYS fold on the flop without a set or better. Then bet that one on the flop when his set doesn't hit so he doesn't get to see the turn or river.

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3, he will SOMETIMES fold to a bet on the flop (depending on pot size)

follow the rules [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

holla

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You may not be missing anything at all but here's what I'm getting at. Say Villain ALWAYS folds flop unless he flops a set or better.

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I did.

[HigherAce]

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1, he has 66 2, he will call any amount preflop

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Perfect conditions for PF push, no?

[ilya]

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see you messed up ilya, you said he will SOMETIMES fold to a bet on the flop. that makes it impossible for anyone to decide what the perfect amount is, and if the play would be better than pushing. without that information, pushing is clearly the best play. holla

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Yeah you're right, although if someone were interested in the problem, they could just go ahead and slap whatever probability they wanted on there and go from there.

i think without that information pushing isn't clearly the best play. it just isn't clear what the best play is.

[raptor517]

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see you messed up ilya, you said he will SOMETIMES fold to a bet on the flop. that makes it impossible for anyone to decide what the perfect amount is, and if the play would be better than pushing. without that information, pushing is clearly the best play. holla

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Yeah you're right, although if someone were interested in the problem, they could just go ahead and slap whatever probability they wanted on there and go from there.

i think without that information pushing isn't clearly the best play. it just isn't clear what the best play is.

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ok see.. the way i see it ilya, is that you are going to have to be able to bet like 1/12th of the pot or something and make him fold to make shoving the worse play. therefore, unless you come up with some ridiculous numbers, shoving is best. holla

[ilya]

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see you messed up ilya, you said he will SOMETIMES fold to a bet on the flop. that makes it impossible for anyone to decide what the perfect amount is, and if the play would be better than pushing. without that information, pushing is clearly the best play. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah you're right, although if someone were interested in the problem, they could just go ahead and slap whatever probability they wanted on there and go from there.

i think without that information pushing isn't clearly the best play. it just isn't clear what the best play is.

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ok see.. the way i see it ilya, is that you are going to have to be able to bet like 1/12th of the pot or something and make him fold to make shoving the worse play. therefore, unless you come up with some ridiculous numbers, shoving is best. holla

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it doesn't need to be that absurd. for example if you both have 10xbb, and he always folds flop without a set, you get almost the same EV from raising to 7.5xbb preflop as from pushing (480 vs 500) while reducing your chance of busting by more than 8%. so you're betting 1/6th pot on the flop. if he calls, that's fine. he's still making a mistake on the flop. although since it's a tournament you might actually prefer that he fold.

if you both have 10xbb and you raise 8xbb preflop, you actually make more than you do by pushing preflop (524 vs. 500) if he always folds flop without a set, and of course you average the same as by pushing if he never folds on the flop. Plus of course there's the fact that when he folds flop you bust less often. And his call on the flop w/o a set is only break-even.

So, whether or not betting an amount that gives Villain 9:1 on your flop bet is actually *optimal*, I think it is clearly better than pushing.

Ok say you dont push, and flop comes 632. Are you gonna fold?

[raptor517]

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Ok say you dont push, and flop comes 632. Are you gonna fold?

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obviously, unless u have odds to draw to 2 outs, which you wont if u played the hand 'optimally' with the goofy ilya created betting scheme. holla