I'm sorry but I just have to ask . . . - Page 2

ihardlyknowher · #1 10-06-2005, 04:35 AM

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I hate to take up forum space with a question I am [almost] certain is a no-brainer, but . . .

10-handed 3/6 online - weak field but nobody is giving away chips

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UTG, #'s 2 and 4 limp

I'm in # 6 and call with pocket threes.

#7 (a late post) raises, the button 3-bets, both blinds and all three limpers call . . .

Is there one person out there who can make a lucid case for folding here ?

- I have played with the late poster before; it was a foregone conclusion that he would cap when it came back to him; does that make it any easier to come up with a case for tossing the deuces into the muck ?

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The remainder of the hand is also quite interesting but I must know if there is anyone who routinely mucks small pairs in situations such as these. I could flop my set and lose - and if I do it's apt to be extremely expensive - but still . . .

Anyone ?

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Thanks in advance to those who chose to chime in.

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With 8 people in, I am definitely calling. I would think about capping it myself and then just call.

crunchy1 · #2 10-06-2005, 12:32 PM

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With 8 people in, I am definitely calling. I would think about capping it myself and then just call.

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I like a call here too. Capping it here would be bad given your relative position to the PFR(s). You've got a great chance to trap the field for multiple bets after the flop.

mute · #3 10-06-2005, 06:58 AM

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Is there one person out there who can make a lucid case for folding here ?

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Maybe, but they would be wrong.

daryn · #4 10-06-2005, 07:08 AM

just calculate your immediate pot odds.. then think about the fact that you are actually gonna get MORE than that because some people are gonna come along also, you'll see that you have plenty of odds to play, and folding would be like setting fire to money.

jba · #5 10-06-2005, 07:41 PM

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folding would be like setting fire to money.

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well said.

whiskeytown · #6 10-06-2005, 07:16 AM

you're getting almost 8-1 pot odds on a draw that comes in 7.5 to 1 (the odds of you flopping a set of 3's which are your best chance to win) -

7 callers? - jeez...I see a flop but don't get married to it -

RB

chesspain · #7 10-06-2005, 07:35 AM

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UTG, #'s 2 and 4 limp

I'm in # 6 and call with pocket threes.

#7 (a late post) raises, the button 3-bets, both blinds and all three limpers call . . .

Is there one person out there who can make a lucid case for folding here ?

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Only if one of the remaining threes was exposed by the time the action came back to me.

BottlesOf · #8 10-06-2005, 10:18 AM

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Is there one person out there who can make a lucid case for folding here ?

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Probably amulet.

#9 10-06-2005, 11:27 AM

When it gets back to you, there are 21 bets in the pot, and it costs you 3 more (based on your analysis) to play. You easily get odds to flop your set. Yes, you will not always win when you do, but the overlay for you to call is there, as the pot will be huge when you take it down. If this was me, I would cap it and represent AA-KK. Since you will be calling a cap anyways, you might as well do it yourself.

EDIT: because everyone will be calling your cap, your odds for this street are 10.67:1. Ridiculous.

Buz · #10 10-06-2005, 12:02 PM

I think it is very rare to have all these callers to a raise and a re-raise. You would "routinely" see one or no callers facing 2 bets and likely three. With all those callers, you have to assume there is one or two bigger pocket pairs out there. That reduces your pot odds tremendously.

The "lucid argument for folding" is that you'll miss the flop and fold 88% of the time and lose a big pot to Straights, Flushes and bigger Sets 25% of the time you hit your set. This only leaves you with about 9% to work with to justify calling two more bets.

If you go to the odds calculator at Cardplayer.com you can put in five players (max) and if you put in your 33 against an AK, QQ, JTs and 67s, you would find that you are only 16% to win. It's worse if there is another pair out there (14%). The only time you are the favorite is when they all hold each other's cards - hey, it happens!

I think there are other hands that can give you a much better expected value. Of course, many poker players are action junkies and find a lot of value in the thrill of trying to buck the odds and win a big pot. These, obviously, are the players you want at your table.