Gambler's Fallacy-->Can I Call? - Page 2

teamdonkey · #11 12-20-2005, 05:04 PM

villain has hero covered so the bet isn't as big as it seems. With the history between you two i'm probably calling this.

talcum · #12 12-20-2005, 05:07 PM

I guess my rationale is that he is playing with you and you are reinforcing that he can get you out of the pot with any sort of bluster. It is a good point that he may only fold worse hands but I say its not bad taking his $20 now. If he has QJ vs. your tens, you are not too far ahead. He obviously doesn't have a hand every time you have one on the button. He might also think your trying to resteal and call with something like a lower pair but probably not at this point since you've folded twice to this move already.

#13 12-20-2005, 05:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He seems to have it in for you, so just wait until he does this and you have something better than an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're not willing to play back at him until you have 2 pair or more, then he has you right where he wants you.

poboy · #14 12-20-2005, 05:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What's your rationale for pushing preflop? He's folding all hands that i am beating and calling with all hands that are beating me.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a bad thing. While you do likely have the best hand pf, after the flop it will be difficult to know where you stand with either of those hands. Also I believe you will fold out some of his better hands along with the hands that would basically be coinflips. This will also make him a little more careful about reraising you. It would appear he has targeted you as an easy mark, you can't let that happen. JMO

#15 12-20-2005, 06:42 PM

Although I wouldn't feel good about laying this down, the "Don't Go Broke w/ a Pair" rule has to go into effect.

I liken this situation to a football game in which one team keeps trying to go deep on the other. If you're on defense, as you are, what do you do?

You drop back your defensive backs and give up the short stuff and wait patiently for your opponent to make a mistake.

You're still one of the bigger stacks on the table, I don't see risking it all on this hand. What's the rush? Wait until you can do it on your terms.

sting · #16 12-20-2005, 07:11 PM

If you are not going to play back at him with TT on that flop after calling his raise and your history, you need to leave the table. It's the only way to avoid marginal decisions against someone who is representing the preflop nuts every time you raise a hand. My advice, humble as it is, is either push or leave before this hand happens.

4_2_it · #17 12-20-2005, 08:34 PM

Those who are replying fold and wait for a monster are offering you death by a thousand cuts. If you continuously fold to his aggression and then all of a sudden push do you think he is going to call? Nope.

The only way to cower a bully is to punch him in the nose. If you miss and he throttles you, just dust yourself off and get right back in there.

#18 12-20-2005, 08:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Those who are replying fold and wait for a monster are offering you death by a thousand cuts. If you continuously fold to his aggression and then all of a sudden push do you think he is going to call? Nope.

The only way to cower a bully is to punch him in the nose. If you miss and he throttles you, just dust yourself off and get right back in there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree w/ what you're saying, but his opportunity (which he missed) to say "Enough!" occurred on the pre-flop. He has already shown weakness in the hand by only calling.

4_2_it · #19 12-20-2005, 09:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Those who are replying fold and wait for a monster are offering you death by a thousand cuts. If you continuously fold to his aggression and then all of a sudden push do you think he is going to call? Nope.

The only way to cower a bully is to punch him in the nose. If you miss and he throttles you, just dust yourself off and get right back in there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree w/ what you're saying, but his opportunity (which he missed) to say "Enough!" occurred on the pre-flop. He has already shown weakness in the hand by only calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

But his showing weakness doesn't change villain's hand. Just because villain is betting like he has AA doesn't mean he does. I agree that I would have popped him pre-flop, but this is a great flop for TT and if hero is behind now he was behind pre-flop.

Villain actually has a method to his madness and is probably not a total moron. He doesn't want a call and he is banking that the flop missed hero (since it will most of the time).

PoBoy321 · #20 12-20-2005, 09:23 PM

Given your history, I see villain playing AK, AQ, probably some worse hands, as well as PP 77-99 like this. I call this in heartbeat and if he has you beat, he has you beat. You have to make a stand against him at some point and can't just keep folding. You need to see what hands he has when he makes these plays.