Folding aces on third (stud8)

[bigredlemon]

$1/$2 Stud 8
20c ante, 50c bring in

Seat 3: xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Bets
2 folds (I think one was a baby and one was a broadway card.)
Seat 6: xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] calls
Seat 1: xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] raises
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] folds


Relatively tight table with most pots being heads up. No obvious loose gooses but new players sit down every now and then, burn their money, and leave. Seat 1 and 3 just sat down a few orbits ago, I haven't seen any odd behaviour from them. Seat 6 is conservative. He has checked split aces on 4th HU if the other player hit a low card on 4th. He will limp in with hands like A35.

I folded because it felt to me like one of those situations where you win a little or lose a lot. I don't think I'm giving up too much EV here by folding, but would anyone play this differently? I have a feeling I'm the only one who would fold here.

[mscags]

I think this is an excellent fold. Congrats [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] This is something that I need to work on making more often. What exactly are you looking to hit on fourth that makes you comfortable besides an Ace? Nothing, especially since if the pot gets big and villian catch scary it is going to be very difficult to get away of something like Aces up. Good fold, NH

[Arnett23]

Do you really put him on trips here? I would at least call down until his board gave me a reason to fold, if not re-raise to try and get it heads up with what seems like another big pair.

[benneh]

He probably does not have him on trips, but he sees 3 probably lows in the hand, and if 1 or 2 of them catch good on 4th, hero has to play very cautiously from there until the river unless hero catches a monster. Because of this, Hero ends up losing lots of value bets and raises out of fear of getting scooped by a flush, straight or 2 small pair. This is the whole reason behind the "win a little or lose a lot." generally, if hero wins in these kinds of pots, it's when the 2 other lows are weeded out and it ends up being heads up, and hero collects his half of the antes and 2 small bets. When he loses, he ends up losing at least 5 BBs, sometimes more.

At least, I think that's what they're thinking.

[benneh]

Having said that, I don't think I make this fold on 3rd. I probably (incorrectly?) raise 3rd and re-evaluate on 4th street.

[bigredlemon]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really put him on trips here? I would at least call down until his board gave me a reason to fold, if not re-raise to try and get it heads up with what seems like another big pair.

[/ QUOTE ]
For seat 3 to come in with a bet, he likely has a strong HU hand. His most likely hands are big burried pair or 3 lows with an ace. For seat 6 to come in, he needs a hand at least as strong. This means either a 3 low straight or flush or 3low with an ace. Seat 1 knows there's almost no chance he'll get anyone to fold to one more bet, and there's no real value in raising here, so he probably has either a big suited straight or burried pair.

If I come in with a raise, seat 6 and 1 will definetly call, and seat 3 may call. Thus the most likely situation is that I'll be up against 2 low straights draws with at least one of them with a good flush out and/or big burried pair. At least one of my Ace and possibly both are dead. I have about 0.025 pot equity edge against this range of hands. I don't think that is enough to justify the strategic disadvantages (I'll probably be acting first, can only make small bets while i'm ahead while they can make big bets when they hit their low and are freerolling, they can disguise their hand whereas I can't, etc.)

So basically, what Mscags said [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Bill Murphy]

Whatta ya do if your hand was A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]?

[bigredlemon]

[ QUOTE ]
Whatta ya do if your hand was A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]?

[/ QUOTE ]
I would have raised, and this thread wouldn't have been made at all [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I think the main strength of having the A open is being better able to force villains to misplay their hand while also being protected against a raise from all but monsters if I hit a couple low cards. If I hit a few low cards with an door A, I'm much more likely to get rough lows to fold while keeping middle pairs around. Very +EV.

[Arnett23]

I guess I just can't see seat 6 raising here with a low. His most probable hand to me is a large pair in the hole so going to war with him and splitting with the low (if it is made, if not scooping.) Can't be afraid of someone hitting two pair, do you not both have same odds to hit a second pair? Also if it is 3 lows, alot of their 2 pair and low outs are gone so you should be in better shape. Maybe I am wrong since I play mostly stud hi, but I re-raise here and see what happens on fourth.

[Andy B]

I three-bet, but I've always been a loose cannon. I would say that the most probable hands for both the bring-in and the raiser are big pairs in the hole. You have the biggest pair. Folding wouldn't occur to me.