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#11
08-29-2005, 12:26 AM
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A much bigger issue?
I wouldn't fold. AK is the only that figures to have you beat on this board and you have 6 outs to at least tie that hand if you're not still ahead.
On a side note: Shouldn't you be bugging out of New Orleans instead of playing poker? 
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#15
08-29-2005, 12:32 AM
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Re: result
I hate to say I told you so, but...
As DcifrThs points out, you need to give less credit to bb here for several reasons. Contrary to the other advice you received, I think this is an easier call than it is a fold.
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#17
08-29-2005, 12:38 AM
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Re: result
well.
i was obviously ahead when i folded; (though i would have lost to the river). i do think i gave too much credit to the crappy SB's check raise on the turn; and didn't give acknowledge that BB's 3 bet was an isolation attempt..that worked. i'm still not convinced that calling 2 bets their (with a cap certainly possible) then calling whatever action is on the river when i don't improve will win me money most of the time. but obviously...i'm not sure and that's why i posted the hand (showing my ignorance here; but I don't know what Bay's Theorem is or says).
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#18
08-29-2005, 12:40 AM
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Re: 10-20 live hand Harrahs New Orleans
[ QUOTE ]
good point; but are you saying you'd consider calling/capping in this spot? [/ QUOTE ] its just something to note. what throws me off is the BB's 3bet then flop check. id be happier to lay it down if he bet the flop got called in 2 spots, then checked and 3bet the sb's turn c'r. as it went though there's a chance he could have something weaker than the ace but AQ i dont think is good enough of the time to call it down in this exact spot ... but its much much much closer than everybody seems to think (terms like "turbo muck" CERTAINLY do not apply to this fold) you see this all the time in higher games, excessive action given with not great hands vs. a fish and 2 great players in order to get to the showdown HU vs. the fish. mike l. also said in his post about toughest games is that those games include those that never fodl when you want them to. that said, i still think this particular fold was ok...it really looks like a nice nut boat...but thats whatmakes me wanna call it down...live action though id fold it. Barron
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#20
08-29-2005, 12:42 AM
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Re: A much bigger issue?
[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't fold. AK is the only that figures to have you beat on this board and you have 6 outs to at least tie that hand if you're not still ahead. On a side note: Shouldn't you be bugging out of New Orleans instead of playing poker? [/ QUOTE ] i think AA is much more likely probability wise given the flop check after the 3bet than AK despite the odds against it combinatorically. AK will still bet this flop b/c there can be 2 other aces out...AA, however, having 75% of the aces locked up would want to give lesser hands a card to catch. Barron
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