Unavoidable bubble burst?

[Jeoke]

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What are you trying to gain from the first push? So waht if Q6 is above average, if called you are behind. Surely you don't want to be called here? He's very short so his range will be wide, but still ahead of you. But assuming you don't want to get a call, then is it really worth it for 225 chips? It makes very little difference to your situation to take his blind, but if you double him up it makes a huge difference, putting you in last place. You are well ahead of him at this point, so I would say you shouldn't be going up against him without a very strong hand, since the cost of losing in this situation far outweighs the benefit of stealing his blind or even taking him out.

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I know you didnt look at ICM but another poster said he did. Assuming he is correct that ICM says to push... what i quoted above is exactly what ICM takes into consideration...

Anyway, I'm also no expert but I am always pushing that in the SB. the seccond hand Im not so sure about but i would probably push as well.

If ICM does say to push here then for those of you who say you won't unless you have a better hand, why? only reason I can think of is to preserve your table image.

[kamrann]

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I know you didnt look at ICM but another poster said he did. Assuming he is correct that ICM says to push... what i quoted above is exactly what ICM takes into consideration...


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You are absolutely right, so it's hard to argue. All I can say is that ICM is just a model, it's not perfect. My intuition strongly tells me to fold here. The short stack will obviously go up against one of the three others soon, and my feeling is that you would much rather it was one of the other two than yourself, unless you hold a strong hand. I think when it happens and the big stack is not a good favourite, a lot of equity is being transferred from him to the other two big stacks. So I think I'd rather pass up this even if ICM says it's +$EV, in the hope that one of the other two stacks will go up against him instead.

I know it's sometimes difficult to argue when ICM says something is right, but the bottom line is it's only an approximation, and I'll always go with my instinct when it is strong, regardless of what ICM says. This is such a case.