Jacks on the bubble +1

[JasonP530]

I dont think it is a bad fold. If the initial raiser calls(as he should), then either he or the reraiser will practically be busted, and there is someone who has 700 left. Assuming you dont call, you would probably be in the money. If you call, it is likely you are up against a bunch of overcards and your equity is not that high against both of them. I dont like laying down JJ preflop when it is probably the best hand, but I think it was a good play.

[jwg152]

I would lay it down. The mini raise here is usually trouble. I'm pretty sure this guy has AA or KK. What happened?

[Nottom]

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I would lay it down. The mini raise here is usually trouble. I'm pretty sure this guy has AA or KK. What happened?

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I should have put as part of my read that the min-raise meant nothing to me, he had been doing that the whole time.

If I had to put them on ranges, I would put the first guy on Any pair, most (if not all) Aces, KJ, KQ, QJ. I would put the 2nd guy on 77+, AQ/AJs (this could easily be too tight)

[Nottom]

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I would lay it down. The mini raise here is usually trouble. I'm pretty sure this guy has AA or KK. What happened?

[/ QUOTE ]

I ended up calling. I had the best hand vs 55 and TT but a T hit on the river. The other short stack doubled up the next hand and I bubbled off a few hands later.

[Scuba Chuck]

Is this a $33?

[ QUOTE ]
Haven't seen them do anything particularly stupid, but the initial raiser is probably one of the weaker players.

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OK, it's probably 50/50 if original raiser calls your call. If second raiser had been the original pusher, I'm assuming you'd auto call here. Out of curiosity, is he pissed at original raiser for anything, like a bad beat or two earlier? (I ask because I see this with frequent VPIPers) furthermore, it would open up his hand range.

Without any reads, I think you're very right to put second raiser on a tight range. I'd probably say 77+, and AQ+. You're a 55% favorite against this range.

Other short stack is big blind next hand. Your edge here is very slight if it turns out to be headsup (although there'd be a lot of deadmoney in the pot), and you're below a 50% favorite if original raiser calls (I estimate 43% favorite). I think folding here puts you in a great position no matter the outcome of this hand.

The one argument that can be made to call, is that if you call and win, your chipstack puts you in incredible position to win. I don't give this much weight here.

Interesting side note: QQ has nearly a 2:1 advantage over the hand range discussed. Specifically, it carries a 7% higher win probability. Just a reflection of the big drop off from QQ to JJ is.

Scuba

[Nottom]

Just for kicks, I did an ICM analysis assuming UTG calls.

It showed I needed to win about 42% of the time. Given my guestimate of their ranges, this is almost right about how often JJ will stand up.

If there is any chance that UTG might let his hand go, this becomes a clear call.

If the blinds weren't so big I would have layed it down without giving it a second thought. But the overlay was so was so big for my Jacks I decided to go with my gut (which turned out to be pretty close).

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Just for kicks, I did an ICM analysis assuming UTG calls.

It showed I needed to win about 42% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you should not give ICM analysis as much credibility in this three way action. Even in my post/discussion on ICM results, Eastbay admitted he'd let some positive $EV situations go (I'm not speaking for Eastbay here, in regards to how he would play this hand).
What to do when ICM fails us?

FWIW, I view this situation as either answer is fine. Folding is fine, and calling is fine. For me, folding is better.

[Nottom]

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I think you should not give ICM analysis as much credibility in this three way action.

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Oh I understand, especially when there will be multiple <2BB stacks involved.

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FWIW, I view this situation as either answer is fine. Folding is fine, and calling is fine. For me, folding is better.

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Basically I just ran the numbers to get an idea of where they came out. All it did was confirm that its a close decision.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Opponents seem typical. Haven't seen them do anything particularly stupid, but the initial raiser is probably one of the weaker players.

***** Hand History for Game 1928952583 *****
NL Hold'em $30 Buy-in + $3 Entry Fee Trny:11496166 Level:6 Blinds(150/300) - Thursday, April 21, 15:58:07 EDT 2005
Table Table 11645 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: nott0m ( $1750 )
Seat 2: Oahuraised ( $1230 )
Seat 4: jshader1 ( $1365 )
Seat 8: Kingmamajama ( $2955 )
Seat 10: rambling_man ( $700 )
Trny:11496166 Level:6
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to nott0m [ Js Jd ]
Oahuraised raises [600].
jshader1 is all-In [1365]
Kingmamajama folds.
rambling_man folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only reason I might fold is b/c if you do, UTG will call almost 100% of the time, and either UTG is eliminated or UTG+1 has 135 chips (and if UTG it a total pussy, then he's down to 630 and in the BB next hand). That leaves you and rambling_man (550 chips after posting SB and folding and in the blinds just before you) battling for 3rd, with you having a huge edge on him, and still leaving you with enough chips to make a comeback and finish 2nd or 1st a decent % of the time.

If that "meta factor" wasn't there, I'd want to know how aggressive (overaggressive) UTG+1 is. Also, does UTG mini-raise with some frequency? If UTG+1 is on the aggressive side, and UTG has been mini-raising before (i.e., less likely to be a trap raise with an overpair), then it would be an insta-push in a lot of spots (especially since even if you lose, you'll still have a few chips to try and win a showdown and get back in it, and you'll have a few hands to pick which one to make a stand on). It's just the relative chip position you have against rambling_man (er..post..no, man), and the equal stacks of UTG and UTG+1 that makes me want to be a pussy here and fold.

I'd think that even if you were 50% on average (3-way pot sometimes, 2-way pot sometimes, etc. - 50% seems about right given possible ranges of hands for UTG/UTG+1), given all the stack sizes, it might be more +EV$ to lay it down. But I haven't crunched any numbers to back that thought up (though I might if someone flames me hard enough). But having ~5,000 chips 50% of the time (and $0 50% of the time) vs. 1400 chips 100% of the time (basically 4-player, with a 550 stack that you have a big edge on)...hmmmmmm....

If SB had, say 1500 chips after posting, I'd probably push the JJ. Depends, depends, depends...

[Nottom]

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But having ~5,000 chips 50% of the time (and $0 50% of the time) vs. 1400 chips 100% of the time (basically 4-player, with a 550 stack that you have a big edge on)...hmmmmmm...

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*note - If i lose I still have 400ish left. Not a lot, but enough to possibly outlast the 700 stack guy (who just blinded away 150) since he hits the blinds first.