|
|
#11
09-10-2005, 06:23 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Sox +115?
[ QUOTE ]
mrbaseball once again displays his brilliance at capping baseball. I wish I had been home so I could have participated in this post-fest. [/ QUOTE ] I am not saying that Mr Baseball is not "brilliant". But, if Boston would have won, would you have said that he wasn't brilliant? It was one game. There is no way we can say whether he was right or wrong. craig 
|
|
#12
09-10-2005, 06:51 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Sox +115?
[ QUOTE ]
mrbaseball once again displays his brilliance at capping baseball. I wish I had been home so I could have participated in this post-fest. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, I was wrong. How dumb of me to argue with the God of handicapping himself, mrbaseball. Aaron Small proved he is one of the league's best starter with his brilliant, 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 3 K, 2 BB performance. David Wells' was due for a pounding, because he's fat and old.
|
|
#13
09-10-2005, 09:51 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Sox +115?
[ QUOTE ]
I am not saying that Mr Baseball is not "brilliant". But, if Boston would have won, would you have said that he wasn't brilliant? It was one game. There is no way we can say whether he was right or wrong. craig [/ QUOTE ] I know it's just one game, but look at his analysis. He stated a relatively even starter situation, with BOS having the worse bullpen. Then look at what happened in the game. Small and Wells in reality gave up the same number of earned runs (Wells was charged with an unearned and a fifth earned from a runner he left on base when he was taken out). The difference was the bullpen. It was just a beautifully forecast game on his part.
|
|
#14
09-10-2005, 10:23 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Sox +115?
I acknowledged the bullpen difference and pegged it's value at about 10 cents. I thought maybe that figure was slightly pessimistic. Yanks pen minus Rivera is = Sox bullpen, IMO.
You are being generous by stating the Wells was about as good as Small. He sucked. Sox played sloppy defense but he sucked anyways. I knew it might happen, but I didn't see mrbaseball say anything along those lines and I didn't see any evidence. Wells had been pitching well lately and has been solid all year. He did well against the Yanks before yesterday. But the Yanks offense will sometimes make good pitchers look bad. Small's line yesterday was right about what I expected. Maybe chop off that extra 1/3rd of an inning. I still believe that the correct assessment of the pitching matchup before yesterday would be that Wells is easily the superior pitcher. I think even mrbaseball will agree with me when I say that he didn't predict any of the specific events to occur as they did. Nobody can do that. We have no crystal balls here. We work in probabilities. I still believe the Sox were better than 50% to win yesterday - but I might be wrong. I don't really know how good Aaron Small is. All I can say is that the track record of pitchers with similar statistics is not very good.
|
|
#15
09-10-2005, 11:00 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Sox +115?
[ QUOTE ]
I think even mrbaseball will agree with me when I say that he didn't predict any of the specific events to occur as they did. [/ QUOTE ] Agreed. I just didn't see the starting pitching difference you did although I did expect both bullpens to be involved about as much as they were. Based on bottom line past performances the game looked pretty even to me. I guess I'm not intuitive enough to dig into Small's numbers and see where Small is so lucky and Wells is so superior? Smalls performance and traditional numbers had been pretty good. That said I didn't see him as a big fav or anything. I simply thought the line was pretty fair with a slight home advantage to two winning teams with two winning pitchers and comparable offenses. I wasn't even betting this game! I just gave my opinion [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
