100/200 blind war

[poker1O1]

[ QUOTE ]


situation 1: he has a 6 and you bet/call.

situation 2: he has an 8 and calls your bet.

situation 3: you check he bets the 8 and you win.

situation 4: you check and he bets the 6 and you lose.

so...

E[1+2]= -(2)*.5 + .5*1=-.5

E[3+4]= .5*1 - .5*1=0


[/ QUOTE ]
nice post first of all, is E[1 + 2] the average equity of decisions 1 and 2?

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


situation 1: he has a 6 and you bet/call.

situation 2: he has an 8 and calls your bet.

situation 3: you check he bets the 8 and you win.

situation 4: you check and he bets the 6 and you lose.

so...

E[1+2]= -(2)*.5 + .5*1=-.5

E[3+4]= .5*1 - .5*1=0


[/ QUOTE ]
nice post first of all, is E[1 + 2] the average equity of decisions 1 and 2?

[/ QUOTE ]

each set of possibilities is composed of an 8 and a 6. each 1 is 50% so im combining them for simplicity

Barron

[durrrr]

i obviously dont disagree w/ your post as i realize you know much more than me; however could you please explain 1 "flaw" that seems to be in your logic?

If you bet; he needs to be bluffing >12% or so of the time for you to call; so if your bet/calling- he has a hand @ most 88% of the time correct? or would you be calling for metagame reasons? I never think about metagame b/c i dont play limit regularly; but i guess i shouldnt try n make these kinda folds?

[flawless_victory]

dude, youll be getting 10:1... the vast majority of online 1/2 players are bluffing here 10% and folding is also bad 4 metagame, sure.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
i obviously dont disagree w/ your post as i realize you know much more than me; however could you please explain 1 "flaw" that seems to be in your logic?

If you bet; he needs to be bluffing >12% or so of the time for you to call; so if your bet/calling- he has a hand @ most 88% of the time correct? or would you be calling for metagame reasons? I never think about metagame b/c i dont play limit regularly; but i guess i shouldnt try n make these kinda folds?

[/ QUOTE ]

sure. the cost of calling and being completely wrong in that he will never ever bluff is the difference between your expectation if he bluffs 8% or 12% or whatever and the expectation if he never bluffs multiplied by the cost of the bet.

the cost of folding in this spot in a blind war given the previous action 4handed 1/2 is much larger than the money you save by folding. you will face many more shots taken at you as you will have labelled yourself a folder. doing this, even the poor players or the normally semi-passive ones will cause all of the players to put you to tougher decisions than you would normally face forcing you into potentially larger mistakes than the X%*1bb mistake you'd make by calling.

this is the way i think about it and i could definately be wrong, but in high limit poker, id choose to play against an easy to read person rather than a decent playing maniac any day of the week.

Barron