approximating pot odds for a hand

In hold'em you can approximate your odds after the flop using the rule of four, or two on the turn. Is there any equivalent to this for stud to help out the non-mathematicians among us?

[peritonlogon]

NO easy way...
However, this way is a touch easier on 6th st.

stud probability coefficients

If you do some searches in the archives for DOC AZ you might find more than just 6th st play....

It takes a lot of work to get a good feel for stud and odds are much harder to get exact when you're playing since you do not share any cards.

[benwood]

Mattyoung.Consider this.Suppose you are playing 3-6 stud with a ,50 ante &$1 BI.The game is 8-handed.Three players call the BI,the rest fold,&it's your turn.You have(A,7)7 & you want to know your chance of making A's up or three 7's on 4th &compare this to the price the pot is offering.An A was folded in another hand.You have seen 10 cards,leaving 42.Four of these 42 cards make your hand.The odds of catching your card on 4th are 38 to 4=91/2 to 1.The pot is offering you $4 from the 8 antes& $4 from the BI & 3 callers.You get 8 to 1 from the pot to draw to a 9 1/2 to 1 shot to make your hand on 4th.Not counting implied odds,you don't have enough for a call.Any help? I hope so. Ben

i see what you're saying but wouldn't it be more useful to know the odds of making your hand if you stayed to the end? Your odds of hitting a four outer if you stayed to the end, assuming heads-up play to the end and none of your four outs appear in your opponents hand, are much higher. i don't know, i'm not especially gifted with math so i might just be looking at this the wrong way, but it seems more rational to examine your chances using all seven cards you receive rather than four.

The post referencing probability coefficients for each street are more along the lines of what i'm looking for. Unfortunately there is only reference to the coefficient for 6th st.

I did some basic calculations with probabilities of completing hands given different outs for each street and my results for 6th were similar to Doc AZ's. Once again, math is not my forte, but i got these coefficients: 3rd = 8; 4th = 7; 5th = 5; 6th = 3. These were obtained using very strict perimeters for known cards to maintain simplicity. Does any of that sound even vaguely feasible? Obviously it cannot capture the complexity that is 7-stud but i'm just looking for a tool to help with really difficult decisions at the table...

[preiserone]

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I did some basic calculations with probabilities of completing hands given different outs for each street and my results for 6th were similar to Doc AZ's. Once again, math is not my forte, but i got these coefficients: 3rd = 8; 4th = 7; 5th = 5; 6th = 3. These were obtained using very strict perimeters for known cards to maintain simplicity. Does any of that sound even vaguely feasible? Obviously it cannot capture the complexity that is 7-stud but i'm just looking for a tool to help with really difficult decisions at the table...

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I think with so many cards to come the early street coefficients need to be way more accurate, like a couple decimals and you have to add the factor of how many people are in the hand. A small fraction is going to throw off your odds by alot, especially if you have more than a few outs.

But I don't think this will help you much at game speed, and you probably won't be able to memorize all of the situations that are going to come up, like playin shorthanded and stuff and what you think you need to win.

[benwood]

It's not possible to find a rule of thumb for estimating your chances in stud as it is in holdem.Stud numbers vary so much from hand to hand on the different streets because the number of cards exposed varies from hand to hand.One thing you can do is compute win percentages on systems like 2 dimes until your estimates begin to get more accurate.Poker probe contains a game where you can input hands & guess what your winning chances are & compare with the actual numbers.Using this will improve your ability of evaluating your chance of drawing out &/or winning.

[Roland]

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approximating pot odds

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I think you mean outs, not odds.

no i meant odds. for instance if i'm playing and i have an open ended straight draw (8 outs) on fifth street and it's 1BB into a pot with 8BB in it, 8-1 on my money, am i getting better than 8-1 to improve with my hand? in hold'em on the flop i'd just multiply 8x4 = 32, 100 - 32 = 68/32 = roughly 2-1. hope that clarifies my question some.

[Roland]

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in hold'em on the flop i'd just multiply 8x4 = 32, 100 - 32 = 68/32 = roughly 2-1.

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Could you explain this to me? I suck at holdem…

I have no idea what you are doing ... since is fairly easy to memorize the odds for hitting 1 to 20 outs I never bothered doing any calculations while playing ... but is seemes about right (and at the same time strikes me a bit over the hill)


I suck at Stud