Naked Ad when river flush hits

[Burdzthewurd]

Omaha Hi $0.50-$0.50 PL (real money)

Seat 2: UTG+1 ($56 in chips)
Seat 3: MP ($16.25 in chips)
Seat 6: CO ($17.25 in chips)
Seat 7: Button ($20 in chips)
Seat 8: Hero [2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] ($39.75 in chips)
Seat 9: BB ($62.25 in chips)
Seat 10: UTG ($48 in chips)

PRE-FLOP
UTG folds,4 calls, Hero checks, BB checks.

FLOP [board cards 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ]
Hero bets $2, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $2, MP folds, CO folds, Button folds.

TURN [6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ]
Hero bets $4, UTG+1 calls $4.

RIVER [4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ]
Hero...

UTG+1 is somewhat solid, haven't seen him chase down worse than 2nd nuts, will make a weak value bet with two pair/trips on river, will not pot it without stone nuts. Is a big bet ok here if I know he's not chasing and calling with junk like a Q or J-high flush or straight?

[joewatch]

IMHO, you should not make a big bet here (naked-ace bluff) on the river. Just think about Villain's read on your hand. If I were Villain, I would call with any set, str8 or flush because of the way you bet your hand. You are representing a weak made hand on the flop/turn with your 2/3 pot bet (2-pair, middle or bottom set); a semibluffer or somebody with top set would have potted it on the flop, top set would have potted it on the turn. I think a small blocking bet is the most appropriate move. About $5 sounds right to me.

[TheRempel]

I bet nut flush draws some of the time, so I might be inclined to check-raise the river here. Not a huge amount, just big enough that it looks like you want to be called but also want to maximize EV.

[45Player]

I was going to reply, then I read joe's response, and he articulated it better than I could.

[joewatch]

[ QUOTE ]
I read joe's response, and he articulated it better than I could.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, thanks for the compliment!

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
You are representing a weak made hand on the flop/turn with your 2/3 pot bet (2-pair, middle or bottom set); a semibluffer or somebody with top set would have potted it on the flop

[/ QUOTE ] Ah, that would be why you never ever bet let less than the pot on the flop or turn with drawing boards like this. If you potted flop and turn or maybe potted flop and checked turn then you could blag the pot on the river.