Playing a non-nut flush draw or made flush with only 1 matching card

[brianmarc]

I’m trying to develop a general strategy (i.e., set of rules) for the various situations involving non-nut flush draws and non-nut made flushes when you hold just one card. Here are some of my current thoughts.

The following are situations in which this can occur: In each case the only thing we know for sure is that we are holding a non-ace of the dominant board suit. To keep things simple, assume you have no other outs.

1. Flop is same-suited, so you have a draw to the flush.
2. Turn is 3-suited, so you have a draw to the flush.
3. Turn is 4-suited, so you have a non-nut flush.
4. River is 4-suited, so you have a non-nut flush.
5. River is 5-suited, so you have a non-nut flush. So long as your matching card is not the 2 you have a shot at this pot.

My line of thinking has gone in the following directions.
1. If heads up, treat the draw like any other flush draw – i.e., a 9 outer. The following situations assume multi-way.
2. If there are more than a specified number of unknown cards (I have been using 3 as that number) that you would lose to, treat the flush draw as a zero-outer. Call these the “danger cards”. A couple examples: Turn board shows K, Q, T of the suit and you hold the 9. So there are 2 danger cards: A, J. So you play. Maybe following a check/call approach. If, however, you held the 8, the 9 would now be an additional danger card, so you would fold.
3. An extension of the #2 above is to simply reduce the # of outs by the # of danger cards and then use standard pot odds and pot equity calculations to determine your action.

While #3 feels right to me, something doesn’t feel right since I could be dead already and reducing the odds the danger cards doesn’t really deal with this directly. And also, the other situations may not fit this rule as easily.

I’m hoping these thought can initiate an extended discussion on this.

[zephed56]

your poll doesn't start until next december, but it's a great topic.

[brianmarc]

Ouch! That's embarrassing. Let's hope it doesn't turn others off!