I fold TPTK

[tessarji]

My gut feeling is that folding here is wrong. Math follows, via pokerstove.

Villain's Hand:

AA 3 ways,
KK 6 ways,
QQ 1 way
JJ 6 ways
AK 12 ways
AQ 6 ways

I think this is an appropriately tight range. Pokerstove says:

1,496 games 0.005 secs 299,200 games/sec

Board: Qs 7s 4d 7h

Player: equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Villain: 39.6390 % 30.82% 08.82% { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
PokerBob: 60.3610 % 51.54% 08.82% { AcQc }

You need to call (probably) 2 bets on turn and river to showdown. Final pot odds are 11:2, or 5.5:1.

Obviously your 'tilt' that this player has you beat is based on the flop raise, but I think you will win or chop enough to make this worth a call.

[tessarji]

My play for the hand, FWIW.

Three bet flop.

If villain four bets, C/C to SD.
If villain calls, bet the whole way...

Three betting this flop will probably shut down even KK, and I feel you make more when ahead by not allowing a weaker hand to check behind on any street.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]

Three betting this flop will probably shut down even KK,

[/ QUOTE ]

um, so i can keep betting a worse hand? This seems very not good to me.

by the way, if villain 4 bets the flop, i am beat like a drum.

[tessarji]

You will often be betting a better hand too. These would be value bets if you are ahead > 50% of the time.

Let me try to quantify the value of your read for this hand, with Bayes theorem.

Your read is that the villain will give the above action 100% with state *A (has AA,KK,QQ) and X% of the time with state *notA (has AK,AQ).

Possibility A, which has relative probability 29.4 %
Villain has you beat:
Hand 1: 91.8182 % 91.82% 00.00% { QQ+ }
Hand 2: 08.1818 % 08.18% 00.00% { AcQc }

Possibility notA, which has probability 71.6%
You are ahead:
Hand 1: 22.3485 % 05.68% 16.67% { AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 77.6515 % 60.98% 16.67% { AcQc }

You want to determine P(A|B) the probability of A given the action observed (B). This mathematically is determined by Bayes theorem;

P(A|B) = P(A)*P(B|A) \ (P(A)*P(B|A) + P(notA)*P(B|notA))

P(A)P(B|A) = .294
P(notA)P(B|notA) = .716*X

P(A/B) = .294 \ (.294 + .716X)

Let's do a quick example. If your opponent would 3 bet preflop and raise the flop with AK or AQ 15% of the time:

P(A|B) = .732

We know that, given the raise, he has state *A 73.2% of the time, and a weaker hand (state *notA) 26.8% of the time.

Now, what is the break even point?

You are being offered 5.5:1, you want to average 15.4% equity on a calldown. The break even point is given by:

8.18P(A|B) + 77.6(1-P(A|B)) = 15.4

P(A|B) = 89.6 %

This corresponds with a value of X = 4.8%

Conclusion? If villain would 3 bet preflop and raise the flop more than 5% of the time with AK, AQ, you should not fold.

Edit: Fixed the screwy math

[tessarji]

I think if I could not justify showing down AQ, vs a re-raiser, on a board of Q747, it would be better to fold to the three-bet preflop.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

wow i don't understand a word of this. maybe i play bad poker?

3-betting the flop is (without doing any math) wrong here. but so is folding the turn. so at least we are in agreement there.